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An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side

Author

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  • Alina Kudina

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide some insights on the estimation and forecasting of Ukrainian GDP from the supply side. The aggregate output is modeled on the basis of the aggregate production function estimated from official data on 33 branches of the economy. Later, the model was enhanced by allowing for some level of disaggregation. In this attempt, production functions for major sectors (manufacturing, agriculture, services etc.) were estimated separately to help account for industry peculiarities. Though the theory underlying this study is straightforward, the Ukrainian context in which it was applied assures a challenge for a researcher. The major difficulties are linked to the transitional state of the economy, characterized by structural flaws, considerable changes in statistical methodology, poor quality of data, very short time series, inconsistency of some indicators, lack of stable economic relationships and a significant shadow economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Kudina, 2000. "An Approach to Forecasting Ukrainian GDP from the Supply Side," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0196, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0196
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    File URL: https://case-research.eu/upload/publikacja_plik/SA196.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Snowdon & Howard R. Vane & Peter Wynarczyk, 1994. "A Modern Guide To Macroeconomics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 450.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kateryna Onishchenko, 2012. "Can a pure real business cycle model explain the real exchange rate: the case of Ukraine," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 111-135.
    2. van Aarle, Bas & de Jong, Eelke & Sosoian, Robert, 2006. "Exchange rate management in Ukraine: Is there a case for more flexibility?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 282-305, October.

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