Trend movements and inverted Kondratieff waves in the Dutch economy, 1800-1913
This paper presents the results of an effort to dissect 19th century economic growth in the Netherlands into two principal long run components: the domain of the trend and the domain of long waves. Spectral and cross-spectral analysis is used to identify Kondratieffs in volume series. It appears that the long term pattern of development is composed of an inverse S-shaped trend and a Kondratieff wave that is superimposed upon it. Contrary to the British case, long waves in Dutch volume series appear to run contrary to the corresponding long waves in price series. This finding is at variance with the received view on long waves. This typical result is explained by so-called 'Keynes effect' in combination with the characteristics of a small open economy that has to dance to the tune of the dominant British economy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Uebele, Martin & Ritschl, Albrecht, 2009.
"Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from spectral analysis,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-57, March.
- Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin, 2005. "Stock Markets and Business Cycle Comovement in Germany Before World War I: Evidence from Spectral Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5370, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Albrecht Ritschl & Martin Uebele, 2005. "Stock Markets and Business Cycle Comovement in Germany before World War I: Evidence from Spectral Analysis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
- van Ewijk, Casper, 1982. "A Spectral Analysis of the Kondratieff-Cycle," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 468-99.
- Wintle,Michael, 2000. "An Economic and Social History of the Netherlands, 1800–1920," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521782951.
- Plosser, Charles I, 1989.
"Understanding Real Business Cycles,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 51-77, Summer.
- Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S. & Ravn, M., 1997.
"On Adjusting the H-P Filter for the Frequency of Observations,"
1997-50, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ravn, Morten O & Uhlig, Harald, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CEPR Discussion Papers 2858, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002.
"As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056, July.
- Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2001. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199241071, July.
- Rostow, W. W., 1975. "Kondratieff, Schumpeter, and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(04), pages 719-753, December.
- Crafts, N. F. R. & Leybourne, S. J. & Mills, T. C., 1990. "Measurement of trend growth in European industrial output before 1914: Methodological issues and new estimates," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 442-467, October.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1981. "Money and prices in the 19th century: Was Thomas Tooke right?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 97-127, April.
- Harley, C. Knick, 1977. "The interest rate and prices in Britain, 1873-1913: A study of the Gibson Paradox," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 69-89, January.
- Harley, C. Knick, 1982. "British Industrialization Before 1841: Evidence of Slower Growth During the Industrial Revolution," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(02), pages 267-289, June.
- Mokyr, Joel, 1974. "The Industrial Revolution in the Low Countries in the First Half of the Nineteenth Century: A Comparative Case Study," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(02), pages 365-391, June.
- N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989.
"Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective,"
NBER Working Papers
2882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998.
"Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
- Edward C. Prescott, 1986.
"Theory ahead of business cycle measurement,"
102, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
- Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22.
- Arnold, Lutz G., 2002. "Business Cycle Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199256822, July.
- Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
- Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 1980. "Money and Prices in the Nineteenth Century: An Old Debate Rejoined," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(01), pages 61-67, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:20:y:2009:i:2:p:90-113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.