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Monetary Exit Strategy and Fiscal Spillovers

  • Jan Libich

    ()

  • Dat Thanh Nguyen
  • Petr Stehlík

The paper models strategic monetary-fiscal interactions in the aftermath of the global financial crisis - in a single country as well as a monetary union. It depicts both the short- term (stabilization) perspective and the long-term (sustainability) perspective, and the link between them. This is done in a game theoretic framework that allows for revisions of actions, deterministic or stochastic. In addition, we consider incomplete information about economic conditions, and different types of government. We find that, under ambitious fiscal policies, a legislated long-term monetary commitment may: (i) reduce the risk of a double-dip recession and deflation in the short-term, and at the same time (ii) facilitate the 'exit strategy' of monetary policy, ie prevent sub-optimally high future inflation caused by fiscal spillovers. Our analysis thus implies that an explicit numerical target for average inflation may play the role of a monetary 'credibility insurance' over all phases of the business cycle, and is beneficial especially in countries facing fiscal stress.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2011/042011.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-04.

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Length: 18 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-04
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  1. Richard C. Barnett, 2001. "Inflation, taxes, and the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy by use of a game of chicken," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 82-99, February.
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  3. William D. Nordhaus, 1994. "Policy games: Coordination and Independece in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 139-216.
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  7. WILLIAM A. BRANCH & TROY DAVIG & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2008. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions under Implementable Monetary Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(5), pages 1095-1102, 08.
  8. Klaus Adam & Roberto M. Billi, 2007. "Monetary conservatism and fiscal policy," Research Working Paper RWP 07-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  12. repec:ltr:wpaper:2010.01 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  14. Stefano Eusepi & Jess Benhabib, 2005. "The Design of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Global Perspective," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 388, Society for Computational Economics.
  15. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
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  17. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  18. Suren Basov & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2010. "Stochastic Timing, Uniqueness, and Efficiency in Games," Working Papers 2010.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  19. Avinash Dixit & Luisa Lambertini, 2003. "Interactions of Commitment and Discretion in Monetary and Fiscal Policies," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 575, Boston College Department of Economics.
  20. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlík, 2011. "The Big Picture of Monetary–Fiscal Interactions," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 6-14, 03.
  21. Libich, Jan & Stehlík, Petr, 2010. "Incorporating rigidity and commitment in the timing structure of macroeconomic games," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 767-781, May.
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