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Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax

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  • Lecca, Patrizio
  • McGregor, Peter G.
  • Swales, J. Kim
  • Yin, Ya Ping

Abstract

The Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional inverted Haavelmo effect. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining.

Suggested Citation

  • Lecca, Patrizio & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J. Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 2010. "Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-47, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:184
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrizio Lecca & Grant Allan & Peter McGregor & Kim Swales, 2013. "The Impact of the Introduction of a Carbon Tax for Scotland," ERSA conference papers ersa13p501, European Regional Science Association.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal federalism; devolution; regional wage bargaining and migration; Scotland; regional computable general equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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