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Can Migrants save Greece from Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach using G-AMOS

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  • Pappas, Nikos

Abstract

The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the GAMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Pappas, Nikos, 2008. "Can Migrants save Greece from Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach using G-AMOS," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:17
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/17
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    1. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    2. Alexander H. Sarris & Stavros Zografakis, 1999. "A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 155-182.
    3. John B. Shoven, 2007. "New Age Thinking: Alternative Ways of Measuring Age, Their Relationship to Labor Force Participation, Goverment Policies and GDP," NBER Working Papers 13476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin Jennings & Hein Roelfsema, 2008. "Civil Conflict, Federalism and Strategic Delegation of Leadership," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(4), pages 557-573, July.

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