IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/edn/sirdps/17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Migrants save Greece from Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach using G-AMOS

Author

Listed:
  • Pappas, Nikos

Abstract

The population of Greece is projected to age in the course of the next three decades. This paper combines demographic projections with a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework to assess the macroeconomic impact of these future demographic trends. The simulation strategy adopted in Lisenkova et. al. (2008) is also employed here. The size and age composition of the population in the future depends on current and future values of demographic parameters such as the fertility, mortality rates and the level of annual net migration. We use FIV-FIV software in order to project population changes for 30 years. Total population and working age population changes are introduced to the GAMOS modelling framework calibrated for the Greek economy for the year 2004. Positive net migration is able to cancel the negative impacts of an ageing population that would otherwise occur as a result of the shrinking of the labour force. The policy implication is that a viable, long-lasting migration policy should be implemented, while the importance of policies that could increase fertility should also be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Pappas, Nikos, 2008. "Can Migrants save Greece from Ageing? A Computable General Equilibrium Approach using G-AMOS," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/17
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander H. Sarris & Stavros Zografakis, 1999. "A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 155-182.
    2. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman, 1998. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Survey and Critical Appraisal," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 21(3), pages 205-248, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Research Office). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/sireeuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.