How They Interact to Generate Persistency in Memory
In this paper, we consider nonlinear transformations of random walks driven by thick-tailed innovations with infinite means or variances. In particular, we show how nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and thick tails interact to generate persistency in memory, and we clearly demonstrate that this triad may generate a broad spectrum of persistency patterns. Time series generated by nonlinear transformations of random walks with thick-tailed innovations have asymptotic autocorrelations that decay very slowly as the number of lags increases or do not even decay at all and remain constant at all lags. Depending upon the type of transformation considered and how the model error is specified, they are given by random constants, deterministic functions which decay slowly at polynomial rates, or mixtures of the two. These autocorrelation patterns, along with other sample characteristics of the transformed time series, suggest the possibility that these three ingredients are involved in the data generating processes for many actual economic and financial time series data. We also discuss nonlinear regression asymptotics when the regressor is observable and an alternative regression technique when it is unobservable. We use our model to analyze two empirical applications: exchange rates governed by a target zone and electricity price spikes driven by capacity shortfalls.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: MS-22, 6100 South Main, Houston, TX 77005-1892|
Phone: (713) 527-4875
Fax: (713) 285-5278
Web page: http://www.ruf.rice.edu/~econ/papers/index.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999.
"Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 269-298, June.
- Peter C.B. Phillips & Joon Y. Park, 1998. "Asymptotics for Nonlinear Transformations of Integrated Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1182, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Park, Joon, 2003. "Nonstationary Nonlinearity: An Outlook for New Opportunities," Working Papers 2003-05, Rice University, Department of Economics.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1991.
"The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
495, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "The term structure of interest rate differentials in a target zone : Theory and Swedish data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 87-116, August.
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," Papers 466, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1990. "The Term Structure of Interest Rate Differentials in a Target Zone: Theory and Swedish Data," NBER Working Papers 3374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol, 2003. "Exact tests and confidence sets for the tail coefficient of a-stable distributions," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Joon Y. Park & Peter C. B. Phillips, 1999.
"Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series,"
Working Paper Series
no6, Institute of Economic Research, Seoul National University.
- Chan, Ngai Hang & Tran, Lanh Tat, 1989. "On the First-Order Autoregressive Process with Infinite Variance," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 354-362, December.
- De Jong , F., 1991.
"A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model,"
9155, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- de Jong, F, 1994. "A Univariate Analysis of EMS Exchange Rates Using a Target Zone Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 31-45, Jan.-Marc.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1989.
"Time Series Regression with a Unit Root and Infinite Variance Errors,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
897R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Aug 1989.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1990. "Time Series Regression With a Unit Root and Infinite-Variance Errors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 44-62, March.
- Park, Joon Y., 2002. "Nonstationary nonlinear heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 383-415, October.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
- Joon Y. Park & Yoosoon Chang, 2004. "Endogeneity in Nonlinear Regressions with Integrated Time Series," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 594, Econometric Society.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecl:riceco:2005-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.