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The unexpected upside of depreciation: bridging Europe’s income divide

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  • Boitier, Alvaro
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of foreign exchange (FX) shocks on income inequality across 31 European countries from 2003 to 2021. Leveraging a unique database of household-level longitudinal data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) and exchange rate data from the Bank of International Settlements, we investigate how currency devaluations and appreciations influence income distribution. Our findings indicate that a 1% currency devaluation decreases income inequality by 15 basis points within one year, while appreciations have the reverse effect. Contrary to previous studies focused on Latin America, which credit reductions in inequality to both labor mobility and union influence, our analysis identifies labor mobility as the primary factor in Europe. Furthermore, we discover that income changes are predominantly driven by variations in income per hour rather than hours worked. JEL Classification: F31, F41, F44

Suggested Citation

  • Boitier, Alvaro & Stracca, Livio, 2025. "The unexpected upside of depreciation: bridging Europe’s income divide," Working Paper Series 3067, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253067
    Note: 335958
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hottman, Colin J. & Monarch, Ryan, 2020. "A matter of taste: Estimating import price inflation across U.S. income groups," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Philip R Lane & Livio Stracca, 2018. "Can appreciation be expansionary? Evidence from the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(94), pages 225-264.
    3. Forbes, Kristin & Hjortsoe, Ida & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2018. "The shocks matter: Improving our estimates of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 255-275.
    4. Tille, Cedric, 2006. "On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1207-1225, December.
    5. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "The Distributional Consequences of Large Devaluations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3477-3509, November.
    6. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "Unequal Exchange Rate Pass-Through Across Income Groups," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 682-725, April.
    7. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    8. Adrien Auclert & Matthew Rognlie & Martin Souchier & Ludwig Straub, 2021. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Agents: Sizing up the Real Income Channel," NBER Working Papers 28872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andres Drenik & Gustavo Pereira & Diego J. Perez, 2018. "Wealth Redistribution after Exchange Rate Devaluations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 552-556, May.
    10. Simon Lloyd & Ed Manuel, 2024. "Controls, not shocks: estimating dynamic causal effects in macroeconomics," Bank of England working papers 1079, Bank of England.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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