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Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies

Author

Listed:
  • Nicoletti, Giulio
  • Wacker, Konstantin M.
  • Lodge, David

Abstract

In this paper, we develop financial conditions indices (FCIs) for 3 industrialized (US, Japan, UK) and 5 emerging (China, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey) economies. The FCIs are formed as the principal component of a range of financial series for each country and are constructed to account for fluctuations in the business cycle. We show that these FCIs can help predict growth developments and thereby provide a potential leading indicator for the external environment of the Euro area. While we draw upon established methodological considerations in the literature, our main contribution lies in providing FCIs which are available for a broad set of countries, including many emerging economies, and whose movements can intuitively be interpreted. This latter fact allows us to track developments in the 8 investigated financial markets over the last decade. JEL Classification: C43, E37, E44, G1

Suggested Citation

  • Nicoletti, Giulio & Wacker, Konstantin M. & Lodge, David, 2014. "Measuring financial conditions in major non-euro area economies," Working Paper Series 1743, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141743
    Note: 574602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Matheson, Troy D., 2012. "Financial conditions indexes for the United States and euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 441-446.
    9. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
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    12. Konstantinos Tsatsaronis, 2005. "Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Investigating the relationship between the financial and real economy, volume 22, pages 1-4, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deng, Chuang & Zhao, Xiuyi & Xu, Man, 2022. "Financial cycle and the effect of monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    2. Katharina van Treeck & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2020. "Financial globalisation and the labour share in developing countries: The type of capital matters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2343-2374, September.
    3. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Borg Ian & Micallef Brian, 2018. "Constructing a Financial Condition Index for a Small-Open Economy: The Case of Malta," Research in Applied Economics, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(3), pages 89-105, September.
    6. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    7. Simone Auer, 2017. "A Financial Conditions Index for the CEE economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1145, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Jiménez Polanco, Miguel A. & Ramírez de León, Francisco A., 2016. "Un Indicador de Condiciones Financieras para la República Dominicana [A Financial Condition Index for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 75859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Sun, Lixin & Huang, Yuqin, 2016. "Measuring the instability of China's financial system: Indices construction and an early warning system," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 10, pages 1-41.
    10. Niall O’Sullivan & Sheng Zhu & Jason Foran, 2019. "Sentiment versus liquidity pricing effects in the cross-section of UK stock returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(4), pages 317-329, July.
    11. Patnaik, Ila & Mittal, Shalini & Pandey, Radhika, 2019. "Examining the trade-off between price and financial stability in India," Working Papers 19/248, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Rasa Stasiukynaite, 2017. "Understanding Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 14, Bank of Lithuania.
    13. Wang, Bo & Li, Haoran, 2021. "Downside risk, financial conditions and systemic risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Lawson, Jeremy & Watt, Abigail & Martinez, Carolina & Fu, Rong, 2019. "Chinese Financial Conditions and their Spillovers to the Global Economy and Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14065, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FCI; financial conditions index; forecasting; principal component analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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