IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ecb/ecbops/2024361.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Keep calm, but watch the outliers: deposit flows in recent crisis episodes and beyond

Author

Listed:
  • Fascione, Luisa
  • Oosterhek, Koen
  • Scheubel, Beatrice
  • Stracca, Livio
  • Wildmann, Nadya

Abstract

Since the March 2023 banking turmoil, a policy debate has emerged concerning the unprecedented scale and speed of the observed deposit outflows. Have recent stress episodes and developments in technology structurally changed depositors’ behaviour? Are the Basel III liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) run-off assumptions for cash outflows still fit for purpose? Leveraging on monthly liquidity reporting for a sample of 110 significant institutions (SIs) between 2016 and 2024, we shed light on some stylised facts pertaining to the composition of deposit flows in the banking union. Overall, we find limited evidence of a structural change in the statistical behaviour of deposit flows to date. For all but one of the deposit classes included in the analysis, more than 90% of observable net outflows remained below the LCR run-off assumptions during the whole sample period. Some extreme deposit outflows recorded during the COVID-19 pandemic and for a few SIs assessed as failing or likely to fail (FOLTF) remain rare tail events for which the LCR standard was not designed. JEL Classification: G20, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Fascione, Luisa & Oosterhek, Koen & Scheubel, Beatrice & Stracca, Livio & Wildmann, Nadya, 2024. "Keep calm, but watch the outliers: deposit flows in recent crisis episodes and beyond," Occasional Paper Series 361, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024361
    Note: 2025627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op361~145e704503.en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong Beom Choi & Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2023. "Contagion Effects of the Silicon Valley Bank Run," NBER Working Papers 31772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Todd Messer & Friederike Niepmann, 2023. "What determines passthrough of policy rates to deposit rates in the euro area?," FEDS Notes 2023-07-28-2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Itamar Drechsler & Alexi Savov & Philipp Schnabl, 2017. "The Deposits Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1819-1876.
    4. Franceschi, Emanuele & Grodzicki, Maciej & Kagerer, Benedikt & Kaufmann, Christoph & Lenoci, Francesca & Mingarelli, Luca & Pancaro, Cosimo & Senner, Richard, 2023. "Key linkages between banks and the non-bank financial sector," Financial Stability Review, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    5. Jonathan D. Rose, 2023. "Understanding the Speed and Size of Bank Runs in Historical Comparison," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 12, pages 1-5, May.
    6. Shakina, Ekaterina & Angerer, Martin, 2018. "Coordination and communication during bank runs," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 115-130.
    7. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Khan, Zaheer & Wood, Geoffrey & Knight, Gary, 2021. "COVID-19 and digitalization: The great acceleration," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 602-611.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    9. Meyer, Justus & Teppa, Federica, 2024. "Consumers' payment preferences and banking digitalisation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2915, European Central Bank.
    10. Carlson, Mark & Rose, Jonathan, 2019. "The incentives of large sophisticated creditors to run on a too big to fail financial institution," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 91-104.
    11. Kristian Blickle & Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2022. "Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?," NBER Working Papers 29753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Xiang, Xiandeng & Jiang, Lan, 2023. "Digitalisation and commercial bank performance: A test of heterogeneity from Chinese commercial banks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    13. Isil Erel & Jack Liebersohn & Constantine Yannelis & Samuel Earnest, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission Through Online Banks," NBER Working Papers 31380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Esselink, Henk & Gijsel, Lola Hernandez-van, 2017. "The use of cash by households in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 201, European Central Bank.
    15. Boyle, Glenn & Stover, Roger & Tiwana, Amrit & Zhylyevskyy, Oleksandr, 2022. "Depositor responses to a banking crisis: Are finance professionals special?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 182-195.
    16. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stoevsky, Grigor, 2023. "The role of supply and demand in the post-pandemic recovery in the euro area," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 4.
    17. Bindseil, Ulrich & Senner, Richard, 2024. "Destabilisation of bank deposits across destinations: assessment and policy implications," Working Paper Series 2887, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David P. Glancy & Felicia Ionescu & Elizabeth C. Klee & Antonis Kotidis & Michael Siemer & Andrei Zlate, 2024. "The 2023 Banking Turmoil and the Bank Term Funding Program," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-045, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Carletti, Elena & De Marco, Filippo & Ioannidou, Vasso & Sette, Enrico, 2021. "Banks as patient lenders: Evidence from a tax reform," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 6-26.
    3. Berger, Allen N. & Boot, Arnoud W.A., 2024. "Financial intermediation services and competition analyses: Review and paths forward for improvement," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Toni Ahnert & Kartik Anand & Philipp Johann König, 2024. "Real Interest Rates, Bank Borrowing, and Fragility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(6), pages 1545-1571, September.
    6. Hasan, Iftekhar & Li, Xiang & Takalo, Tuomas, 2023. "Technological innovation and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2023.
    7. Jiang, Erica Xuewei & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2024. "Monetary tightening and U.S. bank fragility in 2023: Mark-to-market losses and uninsured depositor runs?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Mark Egan & Stefan Lewellen & Adi Sunderam, 2017. "The Cross Section of Bank Value," NBER Working Papers 23291, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Liu, Shiyu & Wang, Bo & Zhang, Qianqian, 2024. "Fintech regulation and bank liquidity creation: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. König-Kersting, Christian & Trautmann, Stefan T. & Vlahu, Razvan, 2022. "Bank instability: Interbank linkages and the role of disclosure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Shakina, Ekaterina, 2019. "Bank runs as a coordination problem within a two-bank set-up: Who will survive?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 85-88.
    13. Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2022. "Experimental bank runs," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 25, pages 347-361, Edward Elgar Publishing.
      • Hubert J. Kiss & Ismael Rodriguez-Lara & Alfonso Rosa-Garcia, 2021. "Experimental Bank Runs," ThE Papers 21/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    14. Claußen, Catharina & Platte, Daniel, 2023. "Evaluating the validity of regulatory interest rate risk measures – a simulation approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    15. Muñoz, Manuel A. & Soons, Oscar, 2023. "Public money as a store of value, heterogeneous beliefs, and banks: implications of CBDC," Working Paper Series 2801, European Central Bank.
    16. Qi Chen & Itay Goldstein & Zeqiong Huang & Rahul Vashishtha, 2024. "Liquidity Transformation and Fragility in the U.S. Banking Sector," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3985-4036, December.
    17. Dasol Kim & Luke Olson & Toan Phan, 2024. "Bank Competition and Strategic Adaptation to Climate Change," Working Paper 24-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    18. Diamond, William & Jiang, Zhengyang & Ma, Yiming, 2024. "The reserve supply channel of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    19. Denbee, Edward & Julliard, Christian & Li, Ye & Yuan, Kathy, 2021. "Network risk and key players: A structural analysis of interbank liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 831-859.
    20. Daewoung Choi & Yong Kyu Gam & Hojong Shin, 2023. "Environmental reputation and bank liquidity: Evidence from climate transition," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(7-8), pages 1274-1304, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank regulation; bank runs; deposit outflows; LCR run-off assumptions; liquidity risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2024361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Official Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/emieude.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.