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Scenarios and Options for Productivity Growth in Philippine Agriculture An Application of the AMPLE


  • February 2010

    (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)


Sustaining and accelerating agricultural growth remains a development imperative in view of persistent rural poverty and emerging threats to food security. While growth can be achieved by expansion of agricultural area and input intensification, growth through improvement in productivity is a promising option. However, productivity growth appears to be a relatively low priority for policy. Rather, the agricultural strategy is oriented toward domestic protection to achieve selfsufficiency and to support production by generous subsidies. In contrast, an alternative strategy may be one that is competitionoriented and productivitybased, i.e., one that favors integration with the international economy through trade, as well as making domestic investments targeted at productivity growth. Scenarios for Philippine agriculture under these policy options are evaluated using a new supply and demand model (Agricultural Multimarket Model for Policy Evaluation or AMPLE). Model simulations suggest that : rapid productivity growth, even when combined with trade liberalization, is generally favorable for farmers and consumers based on improved outlook on production, exports, and food consumption. In contrast, trade liberalization alone has a contractionary effect on agriculture; and production support is a costly instrument for promoting agricultural growth. The model experiments suggest that a backtobasics strategy for agriculture, incorporating various productivitybased instruments such as investments in R&D, extension, rural infrastructure, protection of the resource base of agriculture, and even human capital formation and institutional reforms, are key to longterm agricultural growth.

Suggested Citation

  • February 2010, 2010. "Scenarios and Options for Productivity Growth in Philippine Agriculture An Application of the AMPLE," Microeconomics Working Papers 22806, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:eab:microe:22806

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Caparas, Maria Teresa, 1999. "Total Factor Productivity: Estimates for Philippine Economy," Discussion Papers DP 1999-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    2. Balisacan, Arsenio M., 1993. "Agricultural Growth and Rural Performance: A Philippine Perspective," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1993 Vol. XX No. 2-e, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    3. Yair Mundlak & Donald Larson & Rita Butzer, 2004. "Agricultural dynamics in Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 48(1), pages 95-126, March.
    4. David, Cristina C. & Balisacan, Arsenio M., 1995. "Philippine Rice Supply and Demand: Prospects and Policy Implications," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1995 Vol. XXII No. 2-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. David, Cristina C. & Balisacan, Arsenio M., 1995. "Philippine Rice Supply Demand: Prospects and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 1995-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    6. Lau, Lawrence J. & Yotopoulos, Pan A., 1989. "The meta-production function approach to technological change in world agriculture," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 241-269, October.
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    More about this item


    Productivity growth; agriculture; scenario analysis; supply and demand; technological change;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General


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