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El Ciclo Económico: Una Pieza en el Rompecabezas de los Jóvenes que Ni Estudian Ni Trabajan en América Latina

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Gluzmann

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET)

  • Leopoldo Tornarolli

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP)

  • Cecilia Velázquez

    (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CENEP)

Abstract

Uno de cada cinco jóvenes en América Latina Ni estudia Ni trabaja (NiNi), con una tasa en mujeres que prácticamente duplica la de los hombres. Asimismo, uno de cada cuatro jóvenes clasificado como NiNi pertenece a la población económicamente activa por estar buscando trabajo. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el rol del ciclo económico en la proporción de jóvenes NiNis en la región, mediante estimaciones de modelos econométricos con efectos fijos, usando datos de encuestas armonizadas para 14 países en el período 2005- 2024. Los resultados indican que la proporción de NiNis sigue un patrón contracíclico, un aumento de 10% del componente cíclico del producto se asocia con una disminución cercana a tres puntos porcentuales en el porcentaje de jóvenes NiNis. Además, se identifica un “núcleo duro†de jóvenes NiNis que enfrenta mayores barreras para acceder o permanecer en el sistema educativo o en el mercado laboral, incluso en contextos de crecimiento económico. One in five young people in Latin America is Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET), with the rate for women almost double that of men. Similarly, one in four young people classified as NEET is part of the economically active population because he or she is looking for a job. This article aims to analyze the role of the business cycle in the proportion of NEET youth in the region by estimating fixed-effects econometric models using harmonized survey data from 14 countries for the period 2005-2024. The results suggest that the share of NEET youth follows a countercyclical pattern: a 10% increase in the cyclical component of the product is associated with a decrease in the share of NEET youth of about three percentage points. In addition, there is evidence of a “hard core†of NEET youth who face significant barriers to entering or remaining in education or the labour market, even during economic expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Gluzmann & Leopoldo Tornarolli & Cecilia Velázquez, 2025. "El Ciclo Económico: Una Pieza en el Rompecabezas de los Jóvenes que Ni Estudian Ni Trabajan en América Latina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0357, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    • Handle: RePEc:dls:wpaper:0357
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • N36 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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