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Political Instability and the August 1998 Ruble Crisis

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  • Tatiana Fic
  • Omar F. Saqib

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to highlight the importance of political instability, defined as frequent changes in and of government, in undermining the Russian exchange rate based stabilization program of the 1990s. The empirical evidence supports the significance of political instability along with economic fundamentals in determining Russian real effective exchange rate and exchange market pressure, used as a proxy to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatiana Fic & Omar F. Saqib, 2006. "Political Instability and the August 1998 Ruble Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 626, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp626
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    File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.44717.de/dp626.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pazarbasioglu, Ceyla & Otker, Inci, 1997. "Likelihood versus timing of speculative attacks: A case study of Mexico," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 837-845, April.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    4. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    5. Levin, Mark & Satarov, Georgy, 2000. "Corruption and institutions in Russia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 113-132, March.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    7. Alesina, Alberto & Drazen, Allan, 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1170-1188, December.
    8. Sule Ozler & Guido Tabellini, 1991. "External Debt and Political Instability," NBER Working Papers 3772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eco:journ1:2017-03-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "An Analysis of Pakistan's Vulnerability to Crisis," SBP Working Paper Series 21, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency crises; political instability;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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