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Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Steven T. Berry

    (Yale University)

  • Christian Cox

    (University of Arizona)

  • Philip A. Haile

    (Yale University)

Abstract

We study voting in general elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. Our data set includes demographics and turnout of all registered voters for the years 2016Ð2020, as well as vote shares at the precinct and contest level. We estimate a Downsian voting model incorporating rich observed and unobserved heterogeneity at the voter and contest level. We find that voters with high perceived voting costs tend to favor Democrats, as do marginal voters in most districts. Variation in state voting policies accounts for a modest share of overall estimated voting costs but is sufficient to determine the majority party in some years. We also find that many statesÕ district maps favor one party in converting votes to seats. On net these biases favor Republicans. For example, we estimate that winning 50% of votes in every state would give Republicans a 9 percentage point seat advantage in the House.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven T. Berry & Christian Cox & Philip A. Haile, 2025. "Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2453, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2453
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2025-08/d2453.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Knight, Brian, 2017. "An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 205-239, September.
    4. Niemi, Richard G. & Deegan, John, 1978. "A Theory of Political Districting," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1304-1323, December.
    5. Thompson, T.S., 1989. "Identification Of Semiparametric Discrete Choice Models," Papers 249, Minnesota - Center for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Onil Boussim, 2025. "Compositional difference-in-differences for categorical outcomes," Papers 2510.11659, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2025.

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