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An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap

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  • Knight, Brian

Abstract

This paper provides a unified theoretical and empirical analysis of three long-standing explanations for the consistent loss of support for the president's party in midterm Congressional elections: (1) a presidential penalty, defined as a preference for supporting the opposition during midterm years, (2) a surge and decline in voter turnout, and (3) a reversion to the mean in voter partisanship. To quantify the contribution of each of these factors, an econometric model is developed in which voters jointly choose whether or not to participate and which party to support in both house and presidential elections. Estimated using ANES data from both presidential and midterm years, the model can fully explain the observed midterm gaps, and counterfactual simulations demonstrate that each factor makes a sizable contribution towards the midterm gap, with the presidential penalty playing the largest role.

Suggested Citation

  • Knight, Brian, 2017. "An Econometric Evaluation of Competing Explanations for the Midterm Gap," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 12(2), pages 205-239, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:now:jlqjps:100.00015008
    DOI: 10.1561/100.00015008
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    Cited by:

    1. Steven T. Berry & Christian Cox & Philip A. Haile, 2025. "Selective Turnout, Voting Policy, And Partisan Bias: Evidence From Multi-Level Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2453, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Nicole Rae Baerg & Julie L. Hotchkiss & Myriam Quispe†Agnoli, 2018. "Documenting the unauthorized: Political responses to unauthorized immigration," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 1-26, March.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6182, CESifo.
    4. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Roumanias, Costas, 2021. "State-dependent effect on voter turnout: The case of US House elections," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 753-765.

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    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making

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