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Panel Data Analysis of Regional Differentials in the Registered Voter Turnout Rate and the Expected Benefits of Voting for Minorities

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  • Richard J. Cebula

    (Jacksonville University)

  • Christopher M. Duquette

    (The MITRE Corporation)

  • Robert Boylan

    (Jacksonville University)

Abstract

Voter participation rates vary widely across the 50 states. We seek to identify a source of this interstate variation, focusing upon the 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 general elections. Of note is that the latter two general elections featured a minority (i.e., African-American) nominee for president from one of the major political parties. Within the context of the rational voter model, we hypothesize that the presence of a minority candidate atop the ticket will boost minorities’ expected net benefits from voting, with the result that minority voter participation will be higher. Based on cross-sectional fixed-effects estimations, we find that states’ voter participation rates were unaffected by the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2000 and 2004 election cycles, while states’ voter participation rates were positively related to the percent of the population that was either African-American or Hispanic for the 2008 and 2012 election cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard J. Cebula & Christopher M. Duquette & Robert Boylan, 2017. "Panel Data Analysis of Regional Differentials in the Registered Voter Turnout Rate and the Expected Benefits of Voting for Minorities," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(1), pages 29-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:45:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11293-016-9527-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-016-9527-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Cebula, 2004. "Expressiveness and voting: Alternative evidence," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(3), pages 216-221, September.
    2. Copeland, Cassandra & Laband, David N, 2002. "Expressiveness and Voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 110(3-4), pages 351-363, March.
    3. Barreto, Matt A. & Segura, Gary M. & Woods, Nathan D., 2004. "The Mobilizing Effect of Majority–Minority Districts on Latino Turnout," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 98(1), pages 65-75, February.
    4. Jens Großer & Arthur Schram, 2010. "Public Opinion Polls, Voter Turnout, and Welfare: An Experimental Study," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 700-717, July.
    5. Herrera, Helios & Levine, David K. & Martinelli, César, 2008. "Policy platforms, campaign spending and voter participation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 501-513, April.
    6. Arianna Degan & Antonio Merlo, 2011. "A Structural Model Of Turnout And Voting In Multiple Elections," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 209-245, April.
    7. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    8. J. R. Clark & Dwight R. Lee, 2016. "Higher costs appeal to voters: implications of expressive voting," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 37-45, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salvatore M. De Rienzo Jr., 2022. "Shelby County v. Holder and Changes in Voting Behavior," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 67(2), pages 195-210, October.

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