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External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Merlo

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Thomas R.Palfrey

    () (Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

We conduct a model validation analysis of several behavioral models of voter turnout, using laboratory data. We call our method of model validation concealed parameter recovery, where estimation of a model is done under a veil of ignorance about some of the experimentally controlled parameters — in this case voting costs. We use quantal response equilibrium as the underlying, common structure for estimation, and estimate models of instrumental voting, altruistic voting, expressive voting, and ethical voting. All the models except the ethical model recover the concealed parameters reasonably well. We also report the results of a counterfactual analysis based on the recovered parameters, to compare the policy implications of the different models about the cost of a subsidy to increase turnout.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Merlo & Thomas R.Palfrey, 2013. "External Validation of Voter Turnout Models by Concealed Parameter Recovery," PIER Working Paper Archive 13-012, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  • Handle: RePEc:pen:papers:13-012
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turnout; voting; model validation; parameter recovery; laboratory experiments;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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