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Any Sequel to the "Miracle"? Growth Potential in East Asia: Evidence from International Trade Flows

In the debate on future prospects in East Asia after the recent economic crisis, this paper focuses on trade-based explanations of growth to study whether exports may lead the recovery of the five crisis-hit countries. For each of them, it analyses, at different levels of disaggregation, the evolution of openness to trade, patterns and direction of exports, during and after the crisis. It finds higher openness to trade for all countries, both in aggregate and for major sectors. Moreover, during the crisis it reports only minor negative impacts on competitiveness and structure of exports, mainly for Indonesia and Korea. Regionalisation of export flows seems to have been partially reversed and exports towards non-Asian developed countries increased. These findings, together with evidence of export revival, suggest that trade can still contribute fuelling the Financial Crisis Countries' economic growth.

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Paper provided by KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy in its series KITeS Working Papers with number 123.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2000
Date of revision: Dec 2000
Publication status: Forthcoming in European Journal of East Asian Studies
Handle: RePEc:cri:cespri:wp123
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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra, 1990. "Trade and Uneven Growth," NBER Working Papers 3276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-93, September.
  5. Chen, Been-Lon, 1999. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Evidence in East Asia and Latin America," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 265-295.
  6. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  7. Noland, Marcus, 1997. "Has Asian export performance been unique?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 79-101, August.
  8. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November.
  9. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
  10. Edward E. Leamer, 1987. "Measures of Openness," UCLA Economics Working Papers 447, UCLA Department of Economics.
    • Edward E. Leamer, 1988. "Measures of Openness," NBER Chapters, in: Trade Policy Issues and Empirical Analysis, pages 145-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Wood, Adrian & Mayer, Jorg, 2001. "Africa's Export Structure in a Comparative Perspective," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 369-94, May.
  12. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
  13. Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Susan M. Collins & Barry P. Bosworth, 1996. "Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 135-204.
  15. Marvin Barth & Trevor Dinmore, 1999. "Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 643, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
  17. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
  18. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
  19. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
  20. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Measuring outward orientation in LDCs: Can it be done?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 307-335, May.
  21. Muscatelli, V. A. & Stevenson, A. A. & Montagna, C., 1994. "Intra-NIE competition in exports of manufactures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 29-47, August.
  22. Grobar, Lisa Morris, 1993. "The effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on LDC manufactured exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 367-376, August.
  23. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1987. "Trade and Exchange Rate Policies in Growth-Oriented Adjustment Programs," NBER Working Papers 2226, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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