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The Choice and Timing of Foreign Market Entry under Uncertainty

Author

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  • Pennings, Enrico
  • Sleuwaegen, Leo

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on why timing and entry mode should be considered simultaneously. We derive the profit levels at which it is optimal to switch from exporting to setting up a wholly owned subsidiary, creating a joint venture, or licensing production to a local firm. The preferred entry mode depends on uncertainty about future profits, tax differentials between the home and the foreign country, the cost advantages of local firms, institutional requirements, and the degree of cooperation between partners in a joint venture.

Suggested Citation

  • Pennings, Enrico & Sleuwaegen, Leo, 2000. "The Choice and Timing of Foreign Market Entry under Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 2470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2470
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
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    6. Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1998. "Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 134(3), pages 513-533, September.
    7. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    8. Buckley, Peter J & Casson, Mark, 1981. "The Optimal Timing of a Foreign Direct Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 75-87, March.
    9. Nathan Fagre & Louis T Wells, 1982. "Bargaining Power of Multinationals and Host Governments," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 13(2), pages 9-24, June.
    10. Linda Longfellow Blodgett, 1991. "Partner Contributions as Predictors of Equity Share in International Joint Ventures," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(1), pages 63-78, March.
    11. Nakamura, M. & Xie, J., 1998. "Nonverifiability, noncontractibility and ownership determination models in foreign direct investment, with an application to foreign operations in Japan," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 571-599, September.
    12. C Patrick Woodcook & Paul W Beamish & Shige Makino, 1994. "Ownership-Based Entry mode Strategies and International Performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 25(2), pages 253-273, June.
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    16. Tailan Chi & Donald J McGuire, 1996. "Collaborative Ventures and Value of Learning: Integrating the Transaction Cost and Strategic Option Perspectives on the Choice of Market Entry Modes," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(2), pages 285-307, June.
    17. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Elmar Lukas, 2005. "Sequential International Joint-Ventures and the Option to Choose," International Finance 0504007, EconWPA, revised 15 Nov 2005.
    2. Bart Hertveldt & Chantal Kegels & Bernhard Klaus Michel & Bart Van den Cruyce & Joost Verlinden & Frédéric Verschueren, 2005. "Working Paper 16-05 - Déterminants de la localisation internationale, avec application aux secteurs Agoria
      [Working Paper 16-05 - Determinanten van internationale lokalisatie, met toepassing op de
      ," Working Papers 0516, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    3. Gilroy, Bernard Michael & Lukas, Elmar, 2006. "The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 447-465, July.
    4. Bürgel, Oliver & Fier, Andreas & Licht, Georg & Murray, Gordon, 2001. "Timing of international market entry of UK and German high-tech start-ups," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-51, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    irreversible investment; Joint Ventures; Nash bargaining; Tax Policy; Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General

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