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How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments

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  • Trebesch, Christoph
  • Gelpern, Anna
  • Horn, Sebastian
  • Morris, Scott
  • Parks, Bradley

Abstract

China is the world’s largest official creditor, but we lack basic facts about the terms and conditions of its lending. Very few contracts between Chinese lenders and their government borrowers have ever been published or studied. This paper is the first systematic analysis of the legal terms of China’s foreign lending. We collect and analyze 100 contracts between Chinese state-owned entities and government borrowers in 24 developing countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Oceania, and compare them with those of other bilateral, multilateral, and commercial creditors. Three main insights emerge. First, the Chinese contracts contain unusual confidentiality clauses that bar borrowers from revealing the terms or even the existence of the debt. Second, Chinese lenders seek advantage over other creditors, using collateral arrangements such as lender-controlled revenue accounts and promises to keep the debt out of collective restructuring (“no Paris Club†clauses). Third, cancellation, acceleration, and stabilization clauses in Chinese contracts potentially allow the lenders to influence debtors’ domestic and foreign policies. Even if these terms were unenforceable in court, the mix of confidentiality, seniority, and policy influence could limit the sovereign debtor’s crisis management options and complicate debt renegotiation. Overall, the contracts use creative design to manage credit risks and overcome enforcement hurdles, presenting China as a muscular and commercially-savvy lender to the developing world.

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  • Trebesch, Christoph & Gelpern, Anna & Horn, Sebastian & Morris, Scott & Parks, Bradley, 2021. "How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments," CEPR Discussion Papers 16331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16331
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    5. Christopher Clayton & Amanda Dos Santos & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Internationalizing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(3), pages 864-902, March.
    6. Leruth, Luc & Mazarei, Adnan & Regibeau, Pierre & Renneboog, Luc, 2022. "Green Energy Depends on Critical Minerals. Who Controls the Supply Chains?," Other publications TiSEM 61051d4e-26c6-4cbd-b039-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
    8. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Ben Cormier, 2023. "Chinese or western finance? Transparency, official credit flows, and the international political economy of development," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-328, April.
    10. World Bank, 2024. "International Debt Report 2024," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 42444.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    12. Bulent Guler & Yasin K rsat nder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    13. Xia, Ying & Chen, Muyang, 2023. "The Janus face of stateness: China's development-oriented equity investments in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    14. Babic, Milan & Dixon, Adam & Fichtner, Jan, 2021. "Varieties of state capital: What does foreign state-led investment do in a globalized world?," OSF Preprints tm82g, Center for Open Science.
    15. Holger Görg & Katrin Kamin, 2021. "Globalisierung trifft Geoökonomie," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(11), pages 854-857, November.
    16. David Mihalyi & Jyhjong Hwang & Diego Rivetti & James Cust, 2021. "Resource-Backed Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 40145, The World Bank Group.
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    18. Galiani, Sebastian & Paz y Miño, Jose Manuel & Torrens, Gustavo, 2025. "Geopolitics and international trade infrastructure deterrence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    19. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 11/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(11), November.
    20. Gürel, Burak & Kozluca, Mina, 2022. "Chinese investment in Turkey: the Belt and Road Initiative, rising expectations and ground realities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113841, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kursat Onder & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt Disclosure," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-004 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    22. Lu, Yangsiyu & Springer, Cecilia & Steffen, Bjarne, 2024. "Cofinancing and infrastructure project outcomes in Chinese lending and overseas development finance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • K12 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Contract Law
    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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