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How China lends: A rare look into 100 debt contracts with foreign governments

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Gelpern

    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Sebastian Horn

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

  • Scott Morris

    (Center for Global Development)

  • Brad Parks

    (AidData; Center for Global Development)

  • Christoph Trebesch

    (University of Kiel; Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Abstract

China is the world's largest official creditor, but basic facts are lacking about the terms and conditions of its lending. Very few contracts between Chinese lenders and their government borrowers have ever been published or studied. This paper is the first systematic analysis of the legal terms of China's foreign lending. The authors collect and analyze 100 contracts between Chinese state-owned entities and government borrowers in 24 developing countries in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and Oceania, and compare them with those of other bilateral, multilateral, and commercial creditors. Three main insights emerge. First, the Chinese contracts contain unusual confidentiality clauses that bar borrowers from revealing the terms or even the existence of the debt. Second, Chinese lenders seek advantage over other creditors, using collateral arrangements such as lender-controlled revenue accounts and promises to keep the debt out of collective restructuring ("no Paris Club" clauses). Third, cancellation, acceleration, and stabilization clauses in Chinese contracts potentially allow the lenders to influence debtors' domestic and foreign policies. Even if these terms were unenforceable in court, the mix of confidentiality, seniority, and policy influence could limit the sovereign debtor's crisis management options and complicate debt renegotiation. Overall, the contracts use creative design to manage credit risks and overcome enforcement hurdles, presenting China as a muscular and commercially savvy lender to the developing world.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Gelpern & Sebastian Horn & Scott Morris & Brad Parks & Christoph Trebesch, 2021. "How China lends: A rare look into 100 debt contracts with foreign governments," Working Paper Series WP21-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp21-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Scott Morris, 2023. "Development finance cooperation amidst great power competition: what role for the World Bank?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 39(2), pages 379-388.
    3. Christopher Clayton & Amanda Dos Santos & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger, 2025. "Internationalizing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(3), pages 864-902, March.
    4. Sebastian Horn & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Hidden Defaults," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 112, pages 531-535, May.
    5. Leruth, Luc & Mazarei, Adnan & Regibeau, Pierre & Renneboog, Luc, 2022. "Green Energy Depends on Critical Minerals. Who Controls the Supply Chains?," Discussion Paper 2022-024, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. Horn, Sebastian & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "China's overseas lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    8. Xia, Ying & Chen, Muyang, 2023. "The Janus face of stateness: China's development-oriented equity investments in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    9. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2021. "What has been the impact of COVID-19 on debt? Turning a wave into a tsunami," CAMA Working Papers 2021-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. David Mihalyi & Jyhjong Hwang & Diego Rivetti & James Cust, 2021. "Resource-Backed Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Bank Publications - Reports 40145, The World Bank Group.
    11. repec:bre:esslec:44335 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bulent Guler & Yasin Kursat Onder & Temel Taskin, 2022. "Asymmetric Information and Sovereign Debt Disclosure," CAEPR Working Papers 2022-004 Classification-E, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    13. Gerda Asmus-Bluhm & Vera Z. Eichenauer & Andreas Fuchs & Bradley Parks, 2025. "Does India Use Development Finance to Compete With China? A Subnational Analysis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 69(2-3), pages 406-433, March.
    14. Ben Cormier, 2023. "Chinese or western finance? Transparency, official credit flows, and the international political economy of development," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 297-328, April.
    15. World Bank, 2024. "International Debt Report 2024," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 42444.
    16. Bulent Guler & Yasin K rsat nder & Temel Taskin, 2024. "Sovereign Debt Disclosure," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 24/1094, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    17. Babic, Milan & Dixon, Adam & Fichtner, Jan, 2021. "Varieties of state capital: What does foreign state-led investment do in a globalized world?," OSF Preprints tm82g, Center for Open Science.
    18. Holger Görg & Katrin Kamin, 2021. "Globalisierung trifft Geoökonomie," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(11), pages 854-857, November.
    19. Galiani, Sebastian & Paz y Miño, Jose Manuel & Torrens, Gustavo, 2025. "Geopolitics and international trade infrastructure deterrence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    20. Wifo, 2023. "WIFO-Monatsberichte, Heft 11/2023," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 96(11), November.
    21. Gürel, Burak & Kozluca, Mina, 2022. "Chinese investment in Turkey: the Belt and Road Initiative, rising expectations and ground realities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113841, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Lu, Yangsiyu & Springer, Cecilia & Steffen, Bjarne, 2024. "Cofinancing and infrastructure project outcomes in Chinese lending and overseas development finance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • K12 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Contract Law
    • K22 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Business and Securities Law
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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