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Do Temporary Demand Shocks have Long-Term Effects for Startups?

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  • Hvide, Hans K.
  • Meling, Tom G.

Abstract

Recent work shows that firms born in cohorts with weak job creation are persistently smaller, even when the aggregate economy recovers. As both demand-side and supply-side factors vary with the business cycle, it is challenging to establish what drives these patterns from aggregate data. We use comprehensive procurement auctions and register data from Norway to study the effect of cross-sectional variation in transient demand shocks on long-run outcomes for startups. Auction winners have more than 20% higher sales and employment than runners-up several years after the auction. They are also more profitable. Investment effects, broadly interpreted, appear important to understand the results.

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  • Hvide, Hans K. & Meling, Tom G., 2019. "Do Temporary Demand Shocks have Long-Term Effects for Startups?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14131
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kory Kroft & Yao Luo & Magne Mogstad & Bradley Setzler, 2020. "Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry," Working Papers tecipa-666, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    3. Diana Bonfim & Sujiao Zhao & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2021. "Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop: The Government Procurement Channel," Working Papers w202109, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    4. Pietro Santoleri & Andrea Mina & Alberto Di Minin & Irene Martelli, 2020. "The causal effects of R&D grants: evidence from a regression discontinuity," LEM Papers Series 2020/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    5. Diana Bonfim & Miguel A. Ferreira & Francisco Queiro & Sujiao (Emma) Zhao, 2022. "Fiscal policy and credit supply: The procurement channel," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp644, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    entrepreneurship; Investments; Startups;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • G39 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Other

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