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Investment cycles and startup innovation


  • Nanda, Ramana
  • Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew


We find that venture capital-backed startups receiving their initial investment in hot markets are more likely to go bankrupt, but conditional on going public, are valued higher on the day of their initial public offering, have more patents, and have more citations to their patents. Our results suggest that VCs invest in riskier and more innovative startups in hot markets (rather than just worse firms). This is particularly true for the most experienced VCs. Furthermore, our results suggest that increased capital in hot times plays a causal role in shifting investments to more novel startups by lowering the cost of experimentation for early stage investors and allowing them to make riskier, more novel, investments.

Suggested Citation

  • Nanda, Ramana & Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew, 2013. "Investment cycles and startup innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 403-418.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:110:y:2013:i:2:p:403-418 DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.07.001

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    14. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2013. "Innovation and the Financial Guillotine," NBER Working Papers 19379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Qianqian, 2016. "Birds of a feather or celebrating differences? The formation and impacts of venture capital syndication," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 1-14.
    2. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2016. "Financing Entrepreneurial Experimentation," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Lei Gao & Leo L. Yang & Joseph H. Zhang, 2016. "Corporate patents, R&D success, and tax avoidance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 1063-1096, November.
    4. repec:mgt:youmng:v:12:y:2017:i:2:p:115-131 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:tefoso:v:127:y:2018:i:c:p:154-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ramana Nanda & William R. Kerr, 2015. "Financing Innovation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 445-462, December.
    7. Henar Alcalde & Maribel Guerrero, 2016. "Open business models in entrepreneurial stages: evidence from young Spanish firms during expansionary and recessionary periods," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 393-413, June.
    8. Ajay Agrawal & Christian Catalini & Avi Goldfarb, 2014. "Some Simple Economics of Crowdfunding," Innovation Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-97.
    9. Patrick Gaule, 2015. "Patents and the Success of Venture-Capital Backed Startups: Using Examiner Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp546, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    10. repec:eee:pacfin:v:46:y:2017:i:pa:p:158-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dicks, David & Fulghieri, Paolo, 2016. "Innovation Waves, Investor Sentiment, and Mergers," CEPR Discussion Papers 11082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. repec:eee:finana:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:25-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2014. "Financial development and innovation: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 116-135.
    14. Watzinger, Martin & Schnitzer, Monika, 2014. "Measuring Spillovers of Venture Capital," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100318, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Gu, Yuqi & Zhang, Ling, 2017. "The impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act on corporate innovation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 17-30.
    16. Chaplinsky, Susan & Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2016. "Investment risk allocation and the venture capital exit market: Evidence from early stage investing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 38-54.
    17. Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2017. "Coordination Frictions in Venture Capital Syndicates," Harvard Business School Working Papers 17-089, Harvard Business School.
    18. Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern, 2016. "Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance," NBER Chapters,in: Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges, pages 63-109 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. William R. Kerr & Ramana Nanda & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2014. "Entrepreneurship as Experimentation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 25-48, Summer.
    20. Reber, Beat & Vencappa, Dev, 2016. "Deliberate premarket underpricing and aftermarket mispricing: New insights on IPO pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 18-33.
    21. Joshua D. Gottlieb & Richard R. Townsend & Ting Xu, 2016. "Experimenting with Entrepreneurship: The Effect of Job-Protected Leave," NBER Working Papers 22446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Mukherjee, Abhiroop & Singh, Manpreet & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2017. "Do corporate taxes hinder innovation?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 195-221.
    23. Jorge Guzman & Scott Stern, 2015. "Nowcasting and Placecasting Entrepreneurial Quality and Performance," NBER Working Papers 20954, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. repec:bof:bofrdp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201512141480 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Chen, Jie & Leung, Woon Sau & Evans, Kevin P., 2016. "Are employee-friendly workplaces conducive to innovation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 61-79.

    More about this item


    Venture capital; Innovation; Market cycles; Financing risk;

    JEL classification:

    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives


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