IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/12480.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Value of Online Scarcity Signals

Author

Listed:
  • Courty, Pascal
  • Ozel, Sinan

Abstract

Online retailers use scarcity cues to increase sales. Many fear that these pressure tactics are meant to manipulate behavioral biases by creating a sense of urgency. At the same time, scarcity cues could also convey valuable information. We measure the value of the scarcity messages posted by Expedia to a Bayesian rational consumer. A signal reveals information on the number of seats available at the posted price. Consumers can use this information to optimally time when they purchase a ticket. The maximum increase in expected utility for a naive consumer, who does not use publicly available information, is 8 percent. For a sophisticated consumer, the increase is between 4-7 percent. Scarcity signals have a negligible impact on seller revenue and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Courty, Pascal & Ozel, Sinan, 2017. "The Value of Online Scarcity Signals," CEPR Discussion Papers 12480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12480
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP12480
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emir Kamenica & Matthew Gentzkow, 2011. "Bayesian Persuasion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2590-2615, October.
    2. Javad Nasiry & Ioana Popescu, 2012. "Advance Selling When Consumers Regret," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(6), pages 1160-1177, June.
    3. Raymond Deneckere & James Peck, 2012. "Dynamic Competition With Random Demand and Costless Search: A Theory of Price Posting," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 1185-1247, May.
    4. Lewis, Tracy R & Sappington, David E M, 1994. "Supplying Information to Facilitate Price Discrimination," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(2), pages 309-327, May.
    5. Gierl, Heribert & Huettl, Verena, 2010. "Are scarce products always more attractive? The interaction of different types of scarcity signals with products' suitability for conspicuous consumption," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 225-235.
    6. Verhallen, Theo M. M. & Robben, Henry S. J., 1994. "Scarcity and preference: An experiment on unavailability and product evaluation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 315-331, June.
    7. Stefano DellaVigna & Matthew Gentzkow, 2010. "Persuasion: Empirical Evidence," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 643-669, September.
    8. Jun Li & Nelson Granados & Serguei Netessine, 2014. "Are Consumers Strategic? Structural Estimation from the Air-Travel Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2114-2137, September.
    9. Diego Escobari, 2012. "Dynamic Pricing, Advance Sales and Aggregate Demand Learning in Airlines," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 697-724, December.
    10. Mantin, Benny & Gillen, David, 2011. "The hidden information content of price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 385-393, June.
    11. James D. Dana Jr., 1998. "Advance-Purchase Discounts and Price Discrimination in Competitive Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(2), pages 395-422, April.
    12. Benjamin Edelman, 2012. "Using Internet Data for Economic Research," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 189-206, Spring.
    13. Teck-Hua Ho & Christopher S. Tang & David R. Bell, 1998. "Rational Shopping Behavior and the Option Value of Variable Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(12-Part-2), pages 145-160, December.
    14. Kristopher S. Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro, 2009. "Does Competition Reduce Price Dispersion? New Evidence from the Airline Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 1-37, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Huiling & Liu, Stephanie Q. & Kandampully, Jay & Bujisic, Milos, 2020. "Consumer Responses to Scarcity Appeals in Online Booking," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Eden, 2018. "Price Dispersion And Demand Uncertainty: Evidence From U.S. Scanner Data," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1035-1075, August.
    2. Bilotkach, Volodymyr & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2015. "Airline pricing under different market conditions: Evidence from European Low-Cost Carriers," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-163.
    3. Gaurab Aryal & Charles Murry & Jonathan W. Williams, 2018. "Price Discrimination in International Airline Markets," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 968, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. Escobari, Diego & Jindapon, Paan, 2014. "Price discrimination through refund contracts in airlines," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2022. "Hidden prices with fixed inventory: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-61.
    6. Diego Escobari & Nicholas G. Rupp & Joseph Meskey, 2019. "An Analysis of Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(3), pages 639-662, January.
    7. Diego Escobari & Manuel A. Hernandez, 2019. "Separating Between Unobserved Consumer Types: Evidence From Airlines," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1215-1230, April.
    8. Alderighi, Marco & Gaggero, Alberto A. & Piga, Claudio A., 2022. "Hidden prices with fixed inventory: Evidence from the airline industry," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 42-61.
    9. Escobari, Diego, 2017. "Airport, airline and departure time choice and substitution patterns: An empirical analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 198-210.
    10. Chengyan Gu, 2023. "Market segmentation and dynamic price discrimination in the U.S. airline industry," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(5), pages 338-361, October.
    11. Benjamin Eden & Maya Eden & Jonah Yuen, 2016. "Inside The Price Dispersion Box: Evidence From Us Scanner Data," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 16-00017, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    12. Yannis Kerkemezos & Bas Karreman, 2020. "On the Benefits of Being Alone: Scheduling Changes, Intensity of Competition and Dynamic Airline Pricing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-042/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Escobari, Diego & Rupp, Nicholas & Meskey, Joseph, 2018. "Dynamic Price Discrimination in Airlines," MPRA Paper 88078, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Escobari, Diego, 2014. "Estimating dynamic demand for airlines," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 26-29.
    15. Cattaneo, Mattia & Malighetti, Paolo & Morlotti, Chiara & Redondi, Renato, 2016. "Quantity price discrimination in the air transport industry: The easyJet case," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-8.
    16. Melis, Giuseppe & Piga, Claudio A, 2016. "Are all online hotel prices created dynamic? An empirical assessment," MPRA Paper 75896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Gaggero, Alberto A. & Luttmann, Alexander, 2023. "The determinants of hidden-city ticketing: Competition, hub-and-spoke networks, and advance-purchase requirements," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Mikhail Drugov & Marta Troya‐Martinez, 2019. "Vague lies and lax standards of proof: On the law and economics of advice," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 298-315, April.
    19. Chiou, Yu-Chiun & Liu, Chia-Hsin, 2016. "Advance purchase behaviors of air passengers: A continuous logit model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 474-484.
    20. Florian Hoffmann & Roman Inderst & Marco Ottaviani, 2013. "Hypertargeting, Limited Attention, and Privacy: Implications for Marketing and Campaigning," Working Papers 479, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Scarcity; Persuasion; Online recommendations; Price discrimination; Airline ticket;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12480. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.