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Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market Forecasting

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Abstract

This paper describes the application of the MONASH CGE model to labour market forecasting in Australia. The method consists of solving a top-down sequence of models that proceeds from a macro scenario to the CGE model to various labour market extensions. The extensions involve ex post processing of the MONASH results based on employment data from the census and a number of large sample surveys. Their purpose is to greatly increase the amount of information furnished by the simulations at modest additional cost, and hence to support the use of the system for analysing the efficient allocation of training resources.

Suggested Citation

  • G.A. Meagher & P.D. Adams & J.M. Horridge, 2000. "Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market Forecasting," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-76, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:ip-76
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Polo, C. & sancho, F., 1990. "Insights or Forecasting? An Evaluation of a Simple CGE Model of Spain," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 141.90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    2. Adams, Philip D. & Dixon, Peter B. & McDonald, Daina & Meagher, G. A. & Parmenter, Brian R., 1994. "Forecasts for the Australian economy using the MONASH model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 557-571, December.
    3. Borghans, L. & van Eijs, P.W.L.J. & de Grip, A., 1994. "An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 1992," ROA Report 4E, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
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    Cited by:

    1. Lavinia Stefania TOTAN & Corina FRASINEANU & Valentin Sorin POPESCU, 2020. "Analysis Of The Employment Deficit In The Post-Crisis Period," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(1), pages 887-897, November.
    2. KY Sereyvuth, 2023. "Labor Demand Forecasting: The Case of Cambodia," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 89-105.
    3. Liu, Jing Jing & Salleh, Norlida Hanim Mohd & Nor, Nor Ghani Md, 2024. "The economy-wide impact of cooking oil subsidy reforms and compensation to the oil palm industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1228-1242.
    4. Tobias Maier & Anke M�nnig & Gerd Zika, 2015. "Labour Demand In Germany By Industrial Sector, Occupational Field And Qualification Until 2025 - Model Calculations Using The Iab/Inforge Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 19-42, March.
    5. G.A. Meagher & R.A.Wilson & E.Yerushalmi, 2014. "Emerging Structural Pressures in European Labour Markets," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-249, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Galasi, Péter & Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor & Bakó, Tamás, 2013. "Az MTA KRTK KTI munkaerő-piaci előrejelző rendszere [The Institute of Economics labour-market forecasting system]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 117-133.
    7. Tóth, István János & Semjén, András & Czibik, Ágnes & Fazekas, Mihály & Németh, Nándor, 2013. "Munkaerő-keresleti előrejelzés vállalati várakozások alapján. Két vállalati adatfelvétel tanulságai [Labour-demand forecasting based on business expectations. Lessons learned from two consecutive e," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 189-223.
    8. Janine Dixon, 2017. "Victoria University Employment Forecasts: 2017 edition," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-277, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    9. Jouko Kinnunen & Richard Palmer, 2000. "Future Demand of Labour and the Need of Education in the Ã…land Islands," Regional and Urban Modeling 283600045, EcoMod.
    10. Corina FRASINEANU & Lavinia-Stefania TOTAN, 2017. "The Impact Of The Economic Crisis On The Labor Market From Romania," Proceedings of the INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT CONFERENCE, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 11(1), pages 1022-1029, November.
    11. James Andrew Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Gerald Anthony Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2015. "A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 243-270, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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