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Munkaerő-keresleti előrejelzés vállalati várakozások alapján. Két vállalati adatfelvétel tanulságai
[Labour-demand forecasting based on business expectations. Lessons learned from two consecutive enterprise surveys]

Author

Listed:
  • Tóth, István János
  • Semjén, András
  • Czibik, Ágnes
  • Fazekas, Mihály
  • Németh, Nándor

Abstract

Cikkünkben áttekintjük a vállalati felvételek lehetséges szerepét a munkaerő- piaci folyamatok előrejelzésében. Két nagymintás vállalati adatfelvétel adatai alapján körüljárjuk, hogy mennyire képesek a különböző jellemzőjű - eltérő méretű, árbevételű, tulajdonosi hátterű, más-más piacokon jelen levő - vállalatok jövőbeli munkaerőigényüket meghatározni különböző időtávokon. Feltárjuk, hogy mely vállalati jellemzők és tervezési sajátosságok magyarázzák a létszám-előrejelzések leghosszabb időtávját, illetve az előrejelzések pontosságát. Az előrejelzési pontosságot szubjektív és objektív mutatókkal egyaránt vizsgáljuk. Az előrejelzési képesség és pontosság ilyen empirikus vizsgálata döntő jelentőségű lehet annak megítélésében, hogy mennyire lehetséges vállalati felvételekre alapozva előre jelezni egy gazdaság munkaerőigényét aggregáltan, illetve akár szakmák, illetve képesítések szerinti bontásban. A létszám-előrejelzések mellett megvizsgáljuk, milyen minőségi folyamatokat érzékelnek a vállalatok az egyes szakmák tartalmi változásának tekintetében, hogyan értékelik a képzettségi követelmények változásait foglalkozási csoportonként, továbbá milyen újonnan felmerülő munkaerő-követelmények jelennek meg vállalatukban és általában a gazdaságban. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: J21, J23, J40, M54.

Suggested Citation

  • Tóth, István János & Semjén, András & Czibik, Ágnes & Fazekas, Mihály & Németh, Nándor, 2013. "Munkaerő-keresleti előrejelzés vállalati várakozások alapján. Két vállalati adatfelvétel tanulságai [Labour-demand forecasting based on business expectations. Lessons learned from two consecutive e," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 189-223.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1367
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Cörvers,Frank & Heijke,Hans, 2005. "Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: Some key issues," ROA Working Paper 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    6. G.A. Meagher & P.D. Adams & J.M. Horridge, 2000. "Applied General Equilibrium Modelling and Labour Market Forecasting," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-76, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Psacharopoulos, George (ed.), 1987. "Economics of Education," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780080333793.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J40 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - General
    • M54 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Labor Management

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