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Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: Some key issues

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  • Cörvers,Frank
  • Heijke,Hans

    (ROA wp)

Abstract

In this paper, we focus on two key characteristics of ROA’s forecasting approach of the labour market by occupation and education. These concern the use of the gap approach, and the substitution of education programmes within occupations. We show that the gap between supply and demand constitutes a useful and informative concept, which can be justifiably used as long as too little is known about the adjustment process in the labour market. Then we discuss the structure of the substitution process, mainly focusing on substitution as a result of the initially expected gaps between supply and demand. We distinguish between active substitution, resulting from supply-demand mismatches for the education programme concerned, and passive substitution, which is due to spillover effects from supply-demand mismatches for other education programmes. Passive substitution between education programmes is included in the forecasts when the final gaps between supply and demand are calculated. Recent ROA forecasts are used to illustrate the meaning of the various substitution processes for expected labour demand and the gaps between supply and demand. We find that omitting substitution demand from the forecasting model results in future labour market prospects that are generally too pessimistic for the higher educated.

Suggested Citation

  • Cörvers,Frank & Heijke,Hans, 2005. "Forecasting the labour market by occupation and education: Some key issues," ROA Working Paper 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umarow:2005001
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    File URL: https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/portal/files/1030438/guid-579e39a8-781b-4cfd-b0d1-1540ebcee6ff-ASSET1.0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myra Wieling & Lex Borghans, 2001. "Descrepancies between Supply and Demand and Adjustment Processes in the Labour Market," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 15(1), pages 33-56, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bodor, Andras & Robalino, David & Rutkowski, Michal, 2008. "How Mandatory Pensions Affect Labor Supply Decisions and Human Capital Accumulation? Options to Bridge the Gap between Economic Theory and Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 12046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rimler, Judit, 1999. "A munka jövője. Új fogalmak, feltételek, forgatókönyvek
      [The future of work. New concepts, conditions and scenarios]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 772-788.
    3. Rimler, Judit, 2004. "Foglalkozás és végzettség
      [Employment and education]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1172-1187.
    4. Sean Archer, 2007. "The International Literature on Skills Training and the Scope for South African Application," Working Papers 07124, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    5. Heijke H., 1996. "Labour Market Information for Educational Investments," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    6. Cörvers Frank & Dupuy Arnaud & Dijksman Sander & Golsteyn Bart & Kriechel Ben & Montizaan Raymond, 2010. "Methodik Arbeitsmarktprognosen und -indikatoren 2005-2010," ROA Technical Report 001, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    7. Nick Adnett, "undated". "Competition in the School Curriculum: the economic and policy context in the UK," Working Papers 001, Staffordshire University, Business School.
    8. Naura F. Campos & Gerard Hughes & St pan Jurajda & Daniel Munich, 1999. "When the Future is not what it used to be: Lessons from the Western European Experience to Forecasting Education and Training in Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 265, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    9. Gács, János & Bíró, Anikó, 2013. "A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata. Áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról
      [International experience in forecasting labour markets. Overview of quantitative me
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 134-163.
    10. Willems E., 1996. "Manpower Forecasting and Modelling Replacement Demand: An Overview," ROA Working Paper 004, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    11. repec:ilo:ilowps:485252 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Grip,A.,de & Heijke,H., 1998. "Beyond Manpower Planning: ROA's Labour Market Model and its Forecasts to 2002," ROA Working Paper 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    13. McGuinness, Seamus & Bergin, Adele & Kelly, Elish & McCoy, Selina & Smyth, Emer & Timoney, Kevin, 2012. "A Study of Future Demand for Higher Education in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS30.
    14. Tóth, István János & Semjén, András & Czibik, Ágnes & Fazekas, Mihály & Németh, Nándor, 2013. "Munkaerő-keresleti előrejelzés vállalati várakozások alapján. Két vállalati adatfelvétel tanulságai
      [Labour-demand forecasting based on business expectations. Lessons learned from two consecutive e
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 189-223.
    15. Barbu Bogdan POPESCU & Lavinia ªtefania ÞOÞAN & Silvia Elena CRISTACHE, 2013. "Statistical Modeling of Stochastic Dependences between Variables that Characterize Labor Market in Romania for Taking Relevant Management Decisions for a Competitive and Sustainable Development of Lab," Economia. Seria Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 16(2), pages 216-226, December.
    16. Markus Höhne & Carsten Kampe & Anna Lejpras & Andreas Stephan, 2007. "Beschäftigungsprognosen auf Basis amtlicher Firmendaten als Instrument einer handlungsorientierten Politikberatung am Beispiel Brandenburg," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(3), pages 88-112.
    17. Barabas, György & Döhrn, Roland & Spitznagel, Eugen, 2006. "Konjunktur und Arbeitsmarkt : Simulationen und Projektionen mit der IAB-Version des RWI-Konjunkturmodells," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    Keywords

    education; training and the labour market;

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