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Conflict externalization and the quest for peace: theory and case evidence from Colombia


  • Hector Galindo Silva


I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by becomingan international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic con ict between a government and a rebel group externalizes. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is suficiently powerful relative to the rebels, and if the risk of externalization is suficiently high. I show how this model helps to understand the recent and successful peace process between the Colombian government and the country's most powerful rebel group, the FARC, that ended 52 years of armed conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Hector Galindo Silva, 2018. "Conflict externalization and the quest for peace: theory and case evidence from Colombia," Vniversitas Económica 16838, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000416:016838

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item


    Conflict; externalization; peace talks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior


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