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The Road to Hell? Third‐Party Intervention to Prevent Atrocities

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  • Andrew H. Kydd
  • Scott Straus

Abstract

Preventing large‐scale atrocities has emerged as an important policy goal of the post–Cold War period. However, a debate exists about the effects of creating an international institution to prevent atrocities. Advocates of intervention argue that a credible threat to intervene should deter perpetrators and stop atrocities when deterrence fails. Critics argue that third‐party intervention, by strengthening weak minority groups and lowering the cost of war, encourages rebellions and so makes war and atrocities more likely. We develop a model of intervention to analyze this debate. The model shows that the negative effects of intervention highlighted by critics can be mitigated if the third party is relatively neutral and if alternative costs are imposed on decision makers. We conclude that with appropriate institutional design, the net impact of stronger third‐party commitments to end atrocities will be to lower the expected level of atrocities.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew H. Kydd & Scott Straus, 2013. "The Road to Hell? Third‐Party Intervention to Prevent Atrocities," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(3), pages 673-684, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:amposc:v:57:y:2013:i:3:p:673-684
    DOI: 10.1111/ajps.12009
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    Cited by:

    1. Galindo-Silva Hector, 2021. "Conflict Externalization and the Quest for Peace: Theory and Case Evidence from Colombia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(1), pages 29-50, February.
    2. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2021. "Third-Party Interest, Resource Value, and the Likelihood of Conflict," CSEF Working Papers 631, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 20 Jun 2022.
    3. Vincent Auger & Yang-Ming Chang & Shane Sanders, 2017. "Do Humanitarian Interventions Help Humanity? An Economic Analysis of the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ Norm in Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Development Innovations, KarmaQuest International, vol. 1(2), pages 1-14, October.
    4. Morelli, Massimo & Meirowitz, Adam & Ramsay, Kristopher & Squintani, Francesco, 2019. "Third Party Intervention and Strategic Militarization," CEPR Discussion Papers 13879, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Ian S. Lustick & Philip E. Tetlock, 2021. "The simulation manifesto: The limits of brute‐force empiricism in geopolitical forecasting," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.
    6. Gupta, Dhruv & Sriram, Karthik, 2018. "Impact of security expenditures in military alliances on violence from non-state actors: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 338-357.
    7. Kjell Hausken and & Ncube, Mthuli, 2019. "Insurgent attacks, government protection, and international intervention," International Journal of Development and Conflict, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, vol. 9(2), pages 142-175.
    8. Edoardo Grillo & Antonio Nicolò, 2022. "Learning it the hard way: Conflicts, economic sanctions and military aids," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0284, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".

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