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Conflict externalization and the quest for peace: theory and case evidence from Colombia

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  • Hector Galindo-Silva

Abstract

I study the relationship between the likelihood of a violent domestic conflict and the risk that such a conflict "externalizes" (i.e. spreads to another country by creating an international dispute). I consider a situation in which a domestic conflict between a government and a rebel group has the potential to externalize. I show that the risk of externalization increases the likelihood of a peaceful outcome, but only if the government is sufficiently powerful relative to the rebels, the risk of externalization is sufficiently high, and the foreign actor who can intervene in the domestic conflict is sufficiently uninterested in material costs and benefits. I show how this model helps to understand the recent and successful peace process between the Colombian government and the country's most powerful rebel group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

Suggested Citation

  • Hector Galindo-Silva, 2020. "Conflict externalization and the quest for peace: theory and case evidence from Colombia," Papers 2003.02990, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2003.02990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Cohen, Chen & Darioshi, Roy & Nitzan, Shmuel, 2024. "Think twice before attacking: Effort, restraint, and sanctions in war conflicts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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