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Impacto macroeconómico y social de la inversión en infraestructura en Colombia, 2021-2030

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Fernando Mejía
  • Martha Elena Delgado

Abstract

La inversión en infraestructura de transporte tiene como objetivo cerrar las brechas regionales del país e interconectar los principales centros de producción y consumo con los principales puertos. Además, mejoras sustanciales en la infraestructura de transporte multimodal tienen efectos directos en incrementos de la competitividad y la eficiencia del sector productivo y por esta vía, un mayor crecimiento económico de largo plazo (Aschauer, 1989). Estos elementos cobran mayor relevancia en el contexto económico actual, donde la crisis económica causada por el desplome de los precios internacionales del petróleo y el COVID-19 llevará a que la economía colombiana crezca a tasas negativas por cuarta vez en los últimos 100 anos, con un deterioro importante en sus cifras de desempleo y pobreza. Una mayor inversión en infraestructura hace parte fundamental entonces de la agenda de recuperación económica posterior al choque, dados sus fuertes encadenamientos con otros sectores de la economía y su efecto positivo sobre el empleo y el ingreso de los hogares. Si bien la evolución de la inversión en infraestructura colombiana en la última década mejoró considerablemente, en especial debido al desarrollo de los proyectos de obras viales de cuarta generación que iniciaron en el periodo 2014-2016, los principales indicadores a nivel internacional muestran aún un rezago en este frente. En efecto, datos comparativos de la calidad de la infraestructura en relación con el PIB per cápita en 124 países emergentes indican que la calidad de la infraestructura en Colombia es aún deficiente para su nivel actual de desarrollo. Esto explica en buena parte los altos costos logísticos y de transporte del entramado productivo, limitando su inserción en el comercio internacional. En este contexto, este documento tiene como propósito estimar los impactos sobre la economía colombiana de la inversión en infraestructura durante los próximos 10 anos.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Mejía & Martha Elena Delgado, 2020. "Impacto macroeconómico y social de la inversión en infraestructura en Colombia, 2021-2030," Informes de Investigación 18275, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000124:018275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

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