IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Modeling Hyperinflation Phenomenon: A Bayesian Approach

  • Rolando Gonzales Martínez

    ()

    (Unidad de Análisis de Políticas Económicas y Sociales, Bolivian Government)

Hyperinflations are short-lived episodes of economic instability in prices which characteristically last twenty months or less. Classical statistical techniques applied to these small samples could lead to an incorrect inference problem. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for modeling hyper-inflations which improves the modeling accuracy using small-sample inference based on specific parametric assumptions. A theory-congruent model for the Bolivian hyperinflation was estimated as a case study.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cemla.org/PDF/investigacion/inv-2013-04-08.pdf
File Function: 2013
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA in its series Documentos de Investigación - Research Papers with number 8.

as
in new window

Length: 28
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:8
Contact details of provider: Postal: Durango 54, Col. Roma, México D. F., 06700
Phone: 52 (55) 5061 6680
Web page: http://www.cemla.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.cemla.org Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models," Working Paper 96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Thomas J. Sargent, 1976. "The demand for money during hyperinflations under rational expectations: II," Working Papers 60, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Hans-Ulrich Derlien & B. Guy Peters, 2008. "Introduction," Chapters, in: The State at Work, Volume 2, chapter 1 Edward Elgar.
  4. Petrovic, Pavle & Mladenovic, Zorica, 2000. "Money Demand and Exchange Rate Determination under Hyperinflation: Conceptual Issues and Evidence from Yugoslavia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 785-806, November.
  5. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1987. "The Bolivian Hyperinflation and Stabilization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 279-83, May.
  6. Taylor, Mark P, 1990. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Gray, Jo Anna, 1984. "Dynamic Instability in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt to Clarify," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 93-122, February.
  8. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. Christopher A. Sims, 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 3, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
  11. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.
  12. Phylaktis, Kate & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 32-37, February.
  13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-50, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cml:docinv:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Laura Sibaja-Jiménez)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.