IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/56117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Topal, yavuz Han

Abstract

This paper primarily investigates and examines the relationship between money supply growth and inflation in Zimbabwe. The theoretical analysis is based on a modified form of the “Quantity Theory of Money” (QTM) - a theory developed in the classical equilibrium framework- illustrating the relationship between the money supply, velocity of money, the interest rate and the price level in the Zimbabwean economy using monthly data from 1995:1 to 2006:12. Understanding the causes and especially the effects of inflation can provide us with policy tools to attain price stability and economic growth. The analysis rests on an error correction version of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model that determines the short and the long-run trend in Zimbabwe’s inflation. The results show clearly that the main determinants of inflation in Zimbabwe are parallel market premium movements and especially the change in money supply growth. The lagged change in the 3-month-deposit rate, however, seems to have a positive effect on inflation in Zimbabwean. This anomaly could be explained by the manipulation of the Treasury bill market by the Zimbabwe government. Moreover, a Granger causality test indicates the direction of causality from money supply and parallel premium to inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/56117/1/MPRA_paper_56117.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Casella, Alessandra, 1989. "Testing for rational bubbles with exogenous or endogenous fundamentals : The German hyperinflation once more," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 109-122, July.
    2. Asilis, Carlos M & Honohan, Patrick & McNelis, Paul D, 1993. "Money Demand during Hyperinflation and Stabilization: Bolivia, 1980-88," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 262-273, April.
    3. Engsted, Tom, 1993. "Cointegration and Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 350-360, August.
    4. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    5. Taylor, Mark P, 1991. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 327-351, August.
    6. Diba, Behzad T. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1988. "Rational inflationary bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-46, January.
    7. Goodfriend, Marvin S., 1982. "An alternate method of estimating the Cagan money demand function in hyperinflation under rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 43-57.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J, 1987. "Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49, February.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Speculative Hyperinflations in Maximizing Models: Can We Rule Them Out?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 675-687, August.
    11. Salemi, Michael K & Sargent, Thomas J, 1979. "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations: II," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(3), pages 741-758, October.
    12. Albert Makochekanwa, 2007. "A Dynamic Enquiry into the Causes of Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe," Working Papers 200710, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    13. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 14(2), pages 328-350, June.
    14. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April.
    15. Kingston, Geoffrey H., 1982. "The semi-log portfolio balance schedule is tenuous," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 389-399.
    16. Engsted, Tom, 1994. "The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 331-343, August.
    17. Michael, P & Nobay, A R & Peel, D A, 1994. "The German Hyperinflation and the Demand for Money Revisited," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
    18. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Scott, Louis O., 1984. "Multi-country tests for price level bubbles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-340, December.
    19. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Taylor, Mark P., 1993. "Money demand and inflation in Yugoslavia 1980-1989," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-481.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hyperinflation; Zimbabwe; inflation; parallel premium; Quantity Theory of Money; Quasi-Fiscal-Activities;

    JEL classification:

    • E19 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Other
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:56117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.