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Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations

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  • Christiano, Lawrence J

Abstract

This paper studies P. Cagan's model of the German hyperinflation under the hypothesis that adaptive expectations are rational. It shows that inference about the key money demand elasticity parameter, a, is very senstitive to the specification of the dynamic interaction of the unobserved money demand shock with prices and money. In particular, if T. J. Sargent's 1977 specification is modified, then his basic conclusions are overturned: identification of a does not require prior knowledge about the covariance of unobserved shock terms; and d ata on the German hyperinflation imply a sharp, not loose estimate of a, which is of plausible magnitude. Finally, informal tests indicate that modifying Sargent's specification gives rise to improved model fit. Copyright 1987 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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  • Christiano, Lawrence J, 1987. "Cagan's Model of Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(1), pages 33-49, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:28:y:1987:i:1:p:33-49
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    Cited by:

    1. Atıcı, Ferhan M. & Ekiz, Funda & Lebedinsky, Alex, 2014. "Cagan type rational expectation model on complex discrete time domains," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(1), pages 148-151.
    2. Nielsen, Bent, 2008. "On the Explosive Nature of Hyper-Inflation Data," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-29.
    3. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 3, pages 33-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Alexei Deviatov, 2019. "Estimating à Cagan-type Demand Function for Gold: 1561–1913," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 78(3), pages 122-136, September.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1987. "Temporal aggregation and structural inference in macroeconomics," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 63-130, January.
    6. Mark A. Hooker, 1997. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Hooker, Mark A., 2000. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: Monte Carlo and interwar European evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-600, August.
    8. Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1995. "A Markov switching model for the Hungarian price stabilization plan of 1924," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 347-355.
    10. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    11. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

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