Les impacts économiques du changement climatique : enjeux de modélisation
Large differences remain between various assessments of the economic impacts of climate change and of the cost of mitigation policies. These are partly due to a number of questionable assumptions in energy-economic modeling, originating in a value system one should be aware of. This study sets up a frame of reference to analyze the impact of modeling choices on the results. Energy-economic models are analyzed, with four examples: ENV-Linkages, GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. Top-Down models do not catch enough technical progress potentials, whereas Bottom-Up models do not model satisfactorily the feedback effects of the energy sector on the rest of the economy. Recursive dynamic models do not take enough into account the agents’ expectations and cannot build normative scenarios. On the contrary, some hybrid models and all the intertemporal optimization models include an endogenization mechanism which confuses the results. We then analyze the consequences of theoretical differences between models on a practical case: the assessment of the economic value of carbone by GEMINI-E3, IMACLIM-R and POLES. The Stern Review is analyzed in the broader framework of economic growth-environment modelization. The differences in results with other “cost-benefit” models are due to incomplete knowledge of future damages, the choice of an actualization rate and the assessment of non-market damages.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 113, rue de Grenelle, 75700 Paris SP07|
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995.
"The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model,"
118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
- W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
- Olivier Godard, 2007. "Le Rapport Stern sur l'économie du changement climatique était-il une manipulation grossière de la méthodologie économique ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(4), pages 475-506.
- Jean Charles Hourcade & Mark Jaccard & Chris Bataille & Frédéric Ghersi, 2006. "Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges," Post-Print halshs-00471234, HAL.
- Lawrence Goulder, 1995. "Environmental taxation and the double dividend: A reader's guide," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 157-183, August.
- Atsushi Kurosawa & Hiroshi Yagita & Weisheng Zhou & Koji Tokimatsu & Yukio Yanagisawa, 1999. "Analysis of Carbon Emission Stabilization Targets and Adaptation by Integrated Assessment Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 157-175.
- Sir Nicholas Stern, 2006. "What is the Economics of Climate Change?," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 7(2), pages 1-10, April.
- Frederic Ghersi and Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic Consistency issues in E3 Modeling: The Continued Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 39-62.
- Sandra Poncet, 2006. "The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050," Working Papers 2006-16, CEPII research center.
- Vincent M. Otto & Andreas Löschel & John Reilly, 2006. "Directed Technical Change and Climate Policy," Working Papers 2006.81, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Alain Bernard & Marc Vielle, 2008. "GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 173-206, May.
- F. Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade, 2006. "Macroeconomic consistency issues in E3 modeling: The continued fable of the elephant and the rabbit," Post-Print hal-00716324, HAL.
- Robert Ayres & Jörg Walter, 1991. "The greenhouse effect: Damages, costs and abatement," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 1(3), pages 237-270, September.
- Dieter Helm, 2007. "Climate change: Sustainable growth, markets, and institutions," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-05, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
- Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2009-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.