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Unemployment, Skills, and the Business Cycle Since 2000

This paper employs reduced-form microeconometric analysis to examine how yearly changes in aggregate income and GDP growth affect the unemployment probability of individuals with varied skills in the United States. The paper goes beyond traditional education-based measures and assesses how manual, communication, and quantitative skills affect the relationship between macroeconomic shocks and unemployment. Workers specialized in communication skills exhibit lower unemployment rates, reduced unemployment volatility, and less sensitivity to macroeconomic fluctuations.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Colgate University in its series Working Papers with number 2011-04.

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Date of creation: 01 Nov 2011
Date of revision: 12 Sep 2012
Handle: RePEc:cgt:wpaper:2011-04
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  1. Thijs van Rens & Almut Balleer, 2007. "Cyclical Skill-Biased Technological Change," 2007 Meeting Papers 62, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content Of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333, November.
  3. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2008. "Task Specialisation, Immigration and Wages," Development Working Papers 252, Centro Studi Luca d\'Agliano, University of Milano.
  4. Pia Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2011. "Immigrants’ employment outcomes over the business cycle," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep.
  5. Wido Geis, 2010. "High Unemployment in Germany: Why do Foreigners Suffer Most?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper Nr. 90, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  6. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin, 2005. "Costs of Business Cycles for Unskilled Workers," Working Papers 05002, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
  7. Giovanni Peri & Chad Sparber, 2008. "Highly-Educated Immigrants and Native Occupational Choice," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0813, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  8. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 1999. "On the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 245-272, January.
  9. Mennuni, Alessandro, 2013. "Labor Force Composition and Aggregate Fluctuations," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1302, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  10. Pia M. Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2010. "Mexican Immigrant Employment Outcomes over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 316-20, May.
  11. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin & Anthony A. Smith, Jr., 2008. "Appendices for "Revisiting the Welfare Effects of Eliminating Business Cycles"," Technical Appendices 08-211, Review of Economic Dynamics.
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