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Entry to and Exit from Poverty in Russia: Evidence from Longitudinal Data

  • Irina Denisova

    ()

    (CEFIR)

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    Long-term sustainability requires social stability and hence could be undermined by high poverty levels. Still more than twenty five million Russians have incomes that are lower than subsistence level. Effective policies to fight poverty are to be based on clear understanding of its determinants and are to distinguish between measures to prevent from slipping into poverty, and measures to get out of poverty for those who are poor. The study is the first attempt to investigate how entry to poverty and exit from poverty in Russia are shaped, and what are the determinants of the processes. We study entry and exit to poverty using survival analysis and utilizing the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) panel for 1994-2004. The study allows obtaining some important insights. In particular, it shows that the two processes have both symmetries and important asymmetries, with an example of one of the most interesting results being the asymmetry in the influence of economic periods. It turns out that economic growth lowers chances to slip into poverty but also reduces hazards from poverty. This implies that households in poverty in the era of economic upturn are those with serious problems and are to be paid special attention to.

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    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP98Poverty_Denisova.pdf
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    Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0098.

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    Length: 24 pages
    Date of creation: Mar 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0098
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    1. Peter Gottschalk & Enrico Spolare, 2001. "On the Evaluation of Economic Mobility," Working Papers 2001-25, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. John S. Earle & Klara Sabirianova Peter, . "How Late to Pay? Understanding Wage Arrears in Russia," Upjohn Working Papers and Journal Articles jse20023, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    3. Spryskov Dmitry, 2003. "Below the Poverty Line: Duration of Poverty in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 03-04e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    4. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-79, June.
    5. Bradford Mills & Elton Mykerezi, 2009. "Chronic and transient poverty in the Russian Federation," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 283-306.
    6. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 2000. "Is transient poverty different? Evidence for rural China," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 82-99.
    7. Michael M. Lokshin & Ruslan Yemtsov, 2004. "Household Strategies of Coping with Shocks in Post-crisis Russia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 15-32, 02.
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