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Bitcoin Fluctuations and the Frequency of Price Overreactions

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Alex Plastun
  • Viktor Oliinyk

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical methods (both parametric and non-parametric) including ADF tests, Granger causality tests, correlation analysis, regression analysis with dummy variables, ARIMA and ARMAX models, neural net models, and VAR models. Specifically, the hypotheses tested are whether or not the frequency of overreactions (i) is informative about Bitcoin price movements (H1) and (ii) exhibits seasonality (H2). On the whole, the results suggest that it can provide useful information to predict price dynamics in the cryptocurrency market and for designing trading strategies (H1 cannot be rejected), whilst there is no evidence of seasonality (H2 is rejected).

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2018. "Bitcoin Fluctuations and the Frequency of Price Overreactions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7280, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7280
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida & Nuruddeen Abu, 2021. "Market efficiency and volatility persistence of cryptocurrency during pre‐ and post‐crash periods of Bitcoin: Evidence based on fractional integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1318-1335, January.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun & Viktor Oliinyk, 2021. "The frequency of one-day abnormal returns and price fluctuations in the forex," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 401-415, January.
    3. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    4. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alex Plastun, 2020. "Momentum effects in the cryptocurrency market after one-day abnormal returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 34(3), pages 251-266, September.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cryptocurrency; Bitcoin; anomalies; overreactions; abnormal returns; frequency of overreactions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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