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Is Bitcoin’s Market Maturing? Cumulative Abnormal Returns and Volatility in the 2024 Halving and Past Cycles

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  • Vinícius Veloso

    (School of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting at Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 14040-905, Brazil
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Rafael Confetti Gatsios

    (ISG Business School, 1500-552 Lisboa, Portugal
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Vinícius Medeiros Magnani

    (School of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting at Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 14040-905, Brazil)

  • Fabiano Guasti Lima

    (School of Economics, Business Administration and Accounting at Ribeirão Preto, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 14040-905, Brazil)

Abstract

This study examines how cumulative abnormal returns (CARs, the sum of abnormal returns over a period) and volatility behave around Bitcoin halving events, focusing on whether these patterns have evolved as the cryptocurrency market matures. Halvings are periodic events defined by Bitcoin’s algorithm, during which the reward—in the form of newly issued bitcoins—paid to miners for validating network transactions is reduced, impacting miners’ profitability and potentially influencing the asset’s price due to a decreased supply. To carry out the analysis, we collected data on returns and risk for the 2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024 halving events and compared abnormal returns before and around the event, focusing on the 2020 and 2024 halvings. The results reveal significant shifts in Bitcoin’s price behavior within the event window, with an increased occurrence of abnormal returns in 2020 and 2024, alongside variations in average return, volatility, and maximum drawdown across all events. These findings suggest that Bitcoin’s returns and volatility during halvings are decreasing as the cryptocurrency market becomes more regulated and attracts greater participation from institutional investors and governments.

Suggested Citation

  • Vinícius Veloso & Rafael Confetti Gatsios & Vinícius Medeiros Magnani & Fabiano Guasti Lima, 2025. "Is Bitcoin’s Market Maturing? Cumulative Abnormal Returns and Volatility in the 2024 Halving and Past Cycles," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-14, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:18:y:2025:i:5:p:242-:d:1647669
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. John E. Marthinsen & Steven R. Gordon, 2022. "The Price and Cost of Bitcoin," Papers 2204.13102, arXiv.org.
    3. Marthinsen, John E. & Gordon, Steven R., 2022. "The price and cost of bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 280-288.
    4. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
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