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Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences with an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery

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Listed:
  • Eva Deuchert
  • Martin Huber
  • Mark Schelker

Abstract

We propose a difference-in-differences approach for disentangling a total treatment effect within specific subpopulations into a direct effect as well as an indirect effect operating through a binary mediating variable. Random treatment assignment along with specific common trend and effect homogeneity assumptions identify the direct effects on the always and never takers, whose mediator is not affected by the treatment, as well as the direct and indirect effects on the compliers, whose mediator reacts to the treatment. In our empirical application we analyse the impact of the Vietnam draft lottery on political preferences. The results suggest that a high draft risk due to the draft lottery outcome leads to an increase in mild preferences for the Republican Party, but has no effect on strong preferences for either party or on specific political attitudes. The increase in Republican support is mostly driven by the direct effect not operating through the mediator that is military service.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Deuchert & Martin Huber & Mark Schelker, 2016. "Direct and Indirect Effects Based on Difference-in-Differences with an Application to Political Preferences Following the Vietnam Draft Lottery," CESifo Working Paper Series 6000, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6000
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erikson, Robert S. & Stoker, Laura, 2011. "Caught in the Draft: The Effects of Vietnam Draft Lottery Status on Political Attitudes," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 221-237, May.
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    8. Eva Deuchert & Martin Huber, 2017. "A Cautionary Tale About Control Variables in IV Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(3), pages 411-425, June.
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    11. Milligan, Kevin & Moretti, Enrico & Oreopoulos, Philip, 2004. "Does education improve citizenship? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1667-1695, August.
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    13. Thomas Lemieux & David Card, 2001. "Going to College to Avoid the Draft: The Unintended Legacy of the Vietnam War," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 97-102, May.
    14. Rebecca Morton & Jean-Robert Tyran & Erik Wengström, 2011. "Income and Ideology: How Personality Traits, Cognitive Abilities, and Education Shape Political Attitudes," Discussion Papers 11-08, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    15. Angrist, Joshua D, 1990. "Lifetime Earnings and the Vietnam Era Draft Lottery: Evidence from Social Security Administrative Records: Errata," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1284-1286, December.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sonia Bhalotra & Martin Karlsson & Therese Nilsson & Nina Schwarz, 2022. "Infant Health, Cognitive Performance, and Earnings: Evidence from Inception of the Welfare State in Sweden," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1138-1156, November.
    4. Viviana Celli, 2022. "Causal mediation analysis in economics: Objectives, assumptions, models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 214-234, February.
    5. Giovanni Mellace & Alessandra Pasquini, 2019. "Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," CEIS Research Paper 474, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 20 Nov 2019.
    6. Doerr Annabelle & Strittmatter Anthony, 2021. "Identifying Causal Channels of Policy Reforms with Multiple Treatments and Different Types of Selection," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 67-88, January.
    7. Mellace, Giovanni & Pasquini, Alessandra, 2019. "Identify More, Observe Less: Mediation Analysis: Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," Discussion Papers on Economics 12/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    8. Martin Huber & Mark Schelker & Anthony Strittmatter, 2022. "Direct and Indirect Effects based on Changes-in-Changes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 432-443, January.
    9. Viviana Celli, 2019. "Causal Mediation Analysis in Economics: objectives, assumptions, models," Working Papers 12/19, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    10. Hersche Markus & Moor Elias, 2020. "Identification and Estimation of Intensive Margin Effects by Difference-in-Difference Methods," Journal of Causal Inference, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 272-285, January.
    11. Masayuki Sawada, 2019. "Noncompliance in randomized control trials without exclusion restrictions," Papers 1910.03204, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    12. Rajkumar, Vidya Bharathi, 2021. "Male Migration and the Emergence of Female Farm Management in India," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315329, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Holm, Anders & Breen, Richard, 2023. "Causal Mediation in Panel Data – Estimation Based on Difference in Differences," SocArXiv kwscz, Center for Open Science.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    treatment effects; causal mechanisms; direct and indirect effects; Vietnam War lottery; political preferences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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