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Evaluating Emission Trading as a Policy Tool - Evidence from Conditional Jump Models

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  • Marc Gronwald
  • Janina Ketterer

Abstract

This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected movements and that a considerable degree of uncertainty is present. According to the real option literature, uncertainty has adverse effects on investment decisions. Thus, investments in abatement technologies are likely to be postponed due to the peculiar characteristics of emission allowance prices. Furthermore, this price behavior is at odds with the theoretical notion that emission prices equal marginal abatement costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2009. "Evaluating Emission Trading as a Policy Tool - Evidence from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 2682, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2682
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2692, CESifo.
    2. Alexander Zeitlberger & Alexander Brauneis, 2016. "Modeling carbon spot and futures price returns with GARCH and Markov switching GARCH models," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 149-176, March.
    3. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Stefan Trück, 2011. "The Dependence Structure between Carbon Emission Allowances and Financial Markets - A Copula Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3418, CESifo.
    4. Johann Wackerbauer & Jutta Albrecht-Saavedra & Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer & Jana Lippelt & Johannes Pfeiffer & Luise Röpke & Markus Zimmer, 2011. "Bewertung der klimapolitischen Maßnahmen und Instrumente: eine Studie im Auftrag der E.ON AG," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 51.
    5. Lo Prete, Chiara & Norman, Catherine S., 2013. "Rockets and feathers in power futures markets? Evidence from the second phase of the EU ETS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 312-321.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emission allowance prices; jumps; GARCH; real options;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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