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Evaluating Emission Trading as a Policy Tool - Evidence from Conditional Jump Models

  • Marc Gronwald
  • Janina Ketterer

This paper, first, empirically investigates European emission allowance (EUA) prices and, second, evaluates emission trading as a policy measure. Applying combined jump GARCH models yields strong evidence of conditional jump behavior. This implies that EUA prices are subject to unexpected movements and that a considerable degree of uncertainty is present. According to the real option literature, uncertainty has adverse effects on investment decisions. Thus, investments in abatement technologies are likely to be postponed due to the peculiar characteristics of emission allowance prices. Furthermore, this price behavior is at odds with the theoretical notion that emission prices equal marginal abatement costs.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-06/cesifo1_wp2682.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2682.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2682
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  1. Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-89, July.
  2. SANIN, Maria Eugenia & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2009. "Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market: lessons from the future," CORE Discussion Papers 2009024, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  3. Margaret Insley, 2003. "On the option to invest in pollution control under a regime of tradable emissions allowances," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 860-883, November.
  4. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  5. Thomas Dangl & Franz Wirl, 2007. "The consequences of irreversibility on optimal intertemporal emission policies under uncertainty," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 143-166, June.
  6. Wing H. Chan, 2003. "A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 669-685, November.
  7. Pindyck, Robert S., 1998. "Irreversibilities and the timing of environmental policy," Working papers WP 4047-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  8. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  10. Chan, Wing H., 2004. "Conditional correlated jump dynamics in foreign exchange," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 23-28, April.
  11. Mohn, Klaus & Misund, Bård, 2009. "Investment and uncertainty in the international oil and gas industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-248, March.
  12. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2008. "Public policies against global warming: A supply side approach," Munich Reprints in Economics 19638, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  13. Pindyck, Robert S., 1980. "The optimal production of an exhaustible resource when price is exogenous and stochastic," Working papers 1162-80., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March.
  15. Pindyck, Robert S., 2002. "Optimal timing problems in environmental economics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1677-1697, August.
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