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A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange

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  • Wing H. Chan

Abstract

This paper develops a new bivariate jump model to study jump dynamics in foreign exchange returns. The model extends a multivariate GARCH parameterization to include a bivariate correlated jump process. The conditional covariance matrix has the Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (1989) structure, while the bivariate jumps are governed by a Correlated Bivariate Poisson (CBP) function. Using daily data we find evidence of both independent currency specific jumps, as well as jumps common to both exchange rates of the Canadian dollar and Japanese Yen against the U.S. dollar. The paper concludes by investigating a time-varying structure for the arrival of jumps that relaxes the assumption of constant and bounded jump correlation imposed by the CBP function. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Wing H. Chan, 2003. "A correlated bivariate Poisson jump model for foreign exchange," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 669-685, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:28:y:2003:i:4:p:669-685
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-003-0153-9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yen-Hsien Lee & Chien-Liang Chiu, 2007. "The Impact of the QFIIs Deregulation on Normal and Abnormal Information Transmission Between the Stock and Exchange rates in Taiwan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(22), pages 1-10.
    2. Lian, Yu-Min & Chen, Jun-Home & Liao, Szu-Lang, 2021. "Cojump risks and their impacts on option pricing," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 399-410.
    3. Xiangjun Chen & Bo Yan, 2024. "Research on jumps and volatility in China’s carbon market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-43, February.
    4. Marc Gronwald, 2009. "Jumps in Oil Prices- Evidence and Implications," ifo Working Paper Series 75, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Chan Wing Hong, 2008. "Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures in the Presence of Jumps," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, May.
    6. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:22:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2009. "Zur Bewertung von Emissionshandel als Politikinstrument," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(11), pages 22-25, June.
    8. Saldaña-Zepeda, Dayna P. & Velasco-Cruz, Ciro & Torres-Preciado, Víctor H., 2020. "Mexican peso-USD exchange rate: A switching linear dynamical model application," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 80-91.
    9. Lian, Yu-Min & Chen, Jun-Home, 2020. "Joint dynamic modeling and option pricing in incomplete derivative-security market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Rodríguez Nava Abigail & Francisco Venegas Martínez, 2010. "Efectos del tipo de cambio sobre el déficit público: modelos de simulación Monte Carlo," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 55(3), pages 11-40, septiembr.
    11. Gronwald, Marc, 2012. "A characterization of oil price behavior — Evidence from jump models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1310-1317.
    12. Chang, Charles & Fuh, Cheng-Der & Lin, Shih-Kuei, 2013. "A tale of two regimes: Theory and empirical evidence for a Markov-modulated jump diffusion model of equity returns and derivative pricing implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3204-3217.
    13. Ming-Chih Lee & Wan-Hsiu Cheng, 2007. "Correlated jumps in crude oil and gasoline during the Gulf War," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(7), pages 903-913.
    14. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2008. "The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 193-207, June.
    15. Lian, Yu-Min & Chen, Jun-Home & Liao, Szu-Lang, 2024. "Pricing derivatives on foreign assets using Markov-modulated cojump-diffusion dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 503-519.
    16. Huang, Bor-Yi & Chiou, Jer-Shiou & Wu, Pei-Shan, 2007. "Abnormal profitability and foreign investment based on the investigation of covered interest parity," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 384(2), pages 475-484.
    17. Yen-Hsien Lee, 2015. "Does the US Fear Gauge Impact on the Investor Fear Gauge in the Emerging Markets?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(3), pages 197-209, December.
    18. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2009. "Evaluating Emission Trading as a Policy Tool - Evidence from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 2682, CESifo.
    19. He, Chi-Wei & Chang, Kuang-Liang & Wang, Yung-Jang, 2020. "Does the jump risk in the US market matter for Japan and Hong Kong? An investigation on the REIT market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    20. Marc Gronwald & Janina Ketterer, 2012. "What Moves the European Carbon Market? - Insights from Conditional Jump Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 3795, CESifo.
    21. Sergey Belousov, 2006. "Volatility modeling with jumps: applications to Russian and American stock markets (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 1, pages 101-110, September.

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