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Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview


  • Jerome L. Stein


The focus is upon equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt and their interaction, in a world where both the return on investment and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. These theoretically based measures are applied empirically to answer the following questions: What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess debt" that increases the probability of a debt crisis? What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a currency/balance of payments crises? Two theoretical tools are used to derive Early Warning Signals. One is the NATREX model to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate. The second is stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive the optimal debt and endogenous growth rate. Examples are given of these applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome L. Stein, 2004. "Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview," CESifo Working Paper Series 1363, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1363

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    2. Christoph Fischer, 2004. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
    3. Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
    4. Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
    5. Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems; The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Serge REY, 2009. "Des insuffisances de la PPA à l’apport du NATREX : une revue critique des théories du taux de change réel d’équilibre," Working Papers 5, CATT - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour, revised Nov 2009.
    2. Rey, Serge, 2009. "L’apport du NATREX à la modélisation des taux de change d’équilibre : théorie et application au dollar canadien," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(2), pages 131-181, juin.

    More about this item


    stochastic optimal control; foreign debt; NATREX; vulnerability to external shocks; sustainable current account; warning signals of debt crisis; exchange rate misalignments;

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