Optimal Debt and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in a Stochastic Environment: an Overview
The focus is upon equilibrium real exchange rates, optimal external debt and their interaction, in a world where both the return on investment and the real rate of interest are stochastic variables. These theoretically based measures are applied empirically to answer the following questions: What is a theoretically based empirical measure of an "excess debt" that increases the probability of a debt crisis? What is a theoretically based empirical measure of a "misaligned" exchange rate that increases the probability of a currency/balance of payments crises? Two theoretical tools are used to derive Early Warning Signals. One is the NATREX model to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate. The second is stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive the optimal debt and endogenous growth rate. Examples are given of these applications.
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- Christoph Fischer, 2004.
"Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(2), pages 179-210, June.
- Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries : Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2002, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Fischer, Christoph, 2002. "Real currency appreciation in accession countries: Balassa-Samuelson and investment demand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Romain Duval, 2002. "What Do We Know About Long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates? PPPs vs Macroeconomic Approaches," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 382-403, December.
- Wendell Fleming & Jerome L. Stein, 2002.
"Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
744, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
- Stein Jerome & Wendell Fleming, "undated". "Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt," EcoMod2002 330800063, EcoMod.
- Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems; The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
- Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
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