IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10593.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Taxes, Profit Shifting, and the Real Activities of MNEs: Evidence from Corporate Tax Notches

Author

Listed:
  • Jaqueline Hansen
  • Valeria Merlo
  • Georg Wamser

Abstract

We exploit exogenous variation in tax notches created by controlled foreign corporation (CFC) rules to better understand the profit-shifting behavior of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and its consequences for real activity. Using new data on CFC rules and information on direct parent-affiliate ownership links, our identification approach allows us to estimate an unbiased profit-shifting semi-elasticity of about 0.22. Removing incentives to shift profits to particular low-tax locations leads to profit relocation to ‘next-best’ low-tax countries, allowing firms to circumvent domestic taxation. We do not find any significant effects on parent shareholders, neither in terms of repatriated profit nor in terms of their real economic activity. Other entities within the MNE, where profits get relocated to, see a significant increase in various measures of real activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaqueline Hansen & Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2023. "Taxes, Profit Shifting, and the Real Activities of MNEs: Evidence from Corporate Tax Notches," CESifo Working Paper Series 10593, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10593
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10593.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huizinga, Harry & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "International profit shifting within multinationals: A multi-country perspective," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(5-6), pages 1164-1182, June.
    2. Egger, Peter H. & Merlo, Valeria & Wamser, Georg, 2014. "Unobserved tax avoidance and the tax elasticity of FDI," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Katarzyna Bilicka, 2021. "Labor Market Consequences of Antitax Avoidance Policies," Upjohn Working Papers 21-354, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    4. Clément de Chaisemartin & Xavier D'Haultfœuille, 2020. "Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2964-2996, September.
    5. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Riedel, Nadine, 2013. "Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting: Evidence from European multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 95-107.
    6. Peter Egger & Valeria Merlo & Martin Ruf & Georg Wamser, 2015. "Consequences of the New UK Tax Exemption System: Evidence from Micro‐level Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1764-1789, December.
    7. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
    8. Martin Ruf & Alfons J. Weichenrieder, 2012. "The taxation of passive foreign investment: lessons from German experience," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(4), pages 1504-1528, November.
    9. Alessandro Ferrari & Sébastien Laffitte & Mathieu Parenti & Farid Toubal, 2022. "Profit Shifting Frictions and the Geography of Multinational Activity," Working Papers halshs-04103710, HAL.
    10. Charles Boissel & Adrien Matray, 2022. "RETRACTED BY THE AUTHORS: Dividend Taxes and the Allocation of Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(9), pages 2884-2920, September.
    11. Egger, Peter H. & Wamser, Georg, 2015. "The impact of controlled foreign company legislation on real investments abroad. A multi-dimensional regression discontinuity design," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 77-91.
    12. Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, 2019. "Comparing UK Tax Returns of Foreign Multinationals to Matched Domestic Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2921-2953, August.
    13. James R. Hines & Eric M. Rice, 1994. "Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 149-182.
    14. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    15. Baker, Andrew C. & Larcker, David F. & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2022. "How much should we trust staggered difference-in-differences estimates?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 370-395.
    16. Jost H. Heckemeyer & Michael Overesch, 2017. "Multinationals profit response to tax differentials: Effect size and shifting channels," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 965-994, November.
    17. Goodman-Bacon, Andrew, 2021. "Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 254-277.
    18. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    19. Clifford, Sarah, 2019. "Taxing multinationals beyond borders: Financial and locational responses to CFC rules," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 44-71.
    20. Adrien Matray, 2022. "Dividend Taxes, Firm Growth, and the Allocation of Capital," NBER Working Papers 30099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    22. Valeria Merlo & Nadine Riedel & Georg Wamser, 2020. "The impact of thin‐capitalization rules on the location of multinational firms’ foreign affiliates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 35-61, February.
    23. Bilicka, Katarzyna & Qi, Yaxuan & Xing, Jing, 2022. "Real responses to anti-tax avoidance: Evidence from the UK Worldwide Debt Cap," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    24. Alfons Weichenrieder, 1996. "Fighting international tax avoidance," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 37-58, February.
    25. Matthias Dischinger & Bodo Knoll & Nadine Riedel, 2014. "The role of headquarters in multinational profit shifting strategies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(2), pages 248-271, April.
    26. Alfons Weichenrieder, 2009. "Profit shifting in the EU: evidence from Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(3), pages 281-297, June.
    27. Jost H. Heckemeyer & Michael Overesch, 2017. "Multinationals’ profit response to tax differentials: Effect size and shifting channels," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(4), pages 965-994, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2024. "Profit-Shifting Elasticities, Channels, and the Role of Tax Havens: Evidence from Micro-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11045, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katarzyna Bilicka & Evgeniya Dubinina & Petr Janský, 2022. "Fiscal consequences of corporate tax avoidance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Langenmayr, Dominika & Liu, Li, 2023. "Home or away? Profit shifting with territorial taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    3. Sebastian Beer & Ruud de Mooij & Li Liu, 2020. "International Corporate Tax Avoidance: A Review Of The Channels, Magnitudes, And Blind Spots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 660-688, July.
    4. Dominika Langenmayr & Li Liu, 2020. "Where Does Multinational Profit Go with Territorial Taxation? Evidence from the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 8047, CESifo.
    5. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2024. "Profit-Shifting Elasticities, Channels, and the Role of Tax Havens: Evidence from Micro-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11045, CESifo.
    7. Mongrain, Steeve & Oh, David & van Ypersele, Tanguy, 2023. "Tax competition in the presence of profit shifting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    8. Sabine Schenkelberg, 2020. "The Cadbury Schweppes judgment and its implications on profit shifting activities within Europe," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 1-31, February.
    9. Müller, Raphael & Spengel, Christoph & Vay, Heiko, 2020. "On the determinants and effects of corporate tax transparency: Review of an emerging literature," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-063, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    10. Overesch Michael, 2016. "Steuervermeidung multinationaler Unternehmen: Die Befunde der empirischen Forschung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 129-143, July.
    11. Makoto Hasegawa, 2023. "Territorial Tax Reform and Profit Shifting by US and Japanese Multinationals," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 771-804.
    12. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2020. "Do Multinational Firms Use Tax Havens to the Detriment of Other Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8275, CESifo.
    13. Dobranschi, Marian & Nerudová, Danuše & Solilová, Veronika & Litzman, Marek, 2023. "An alternative measure of profit shifting and corporate income tax losses," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 70.
    14. Nerudova, Danuse & Dobranschi, Marian & Solilová, Veronika & Litzman, Marek, 2023. "Onshore and offshore profit shifting and tax revenue losses in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    15. Dominika Langenmayr & Franz Reiter, 2022. "Trading offshore: evidence on banks’ tax avoidance," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 797-837, July.
    16. Bakke, Julia Tropina & Hopland, Arnt Ove & Møen, Jarle, 2019. "Profit shifting and the effect of stricter transfer pricing regulation on tax revenue," Discussion Papers 2019/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    17. Laudage Teles, Sabine & Riedel, Nadine & Strohmaier, Kristina, 2024. "On the effects of anti-profit shifting regulations: A developing country perspective," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & İrem Güçeri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," NBER Working Papers 33132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Sebastian Beer & Mr. Alexander D Klemm & Ms. Thornton Matheson, 2018. "Tax Spillovers from US Corporate Income Tax Reform," IMF Working Papers 2018/166, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Becker, Johannes & Johannesen, Niels & Riedel, Nadine, 2020. "Taxation and the allocation of risk inside the multinational firm," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    corporate taxation; profit shifting anti-tax-avoidance rules; multinational enterprise; firm organization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.