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Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero

Author

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  • Brown, Austin L.
  • Sperling, Daniel
  • Austin, Bernadette
  • DeShazo, JR
  • Fulton, Lew
  • Lipman, Timothy
  • Murphy, Colin W
  • Saphores, Jean Daniel
  • Tal, Gil
  • Abrams, Carolyn
  • Chakraborty, Debapriya
  • Coffee, Daniel
  • Dabag, Sina
  • Davis, Adam
  • Delucchi, Mark A
  • Fleming, Kelly L
  • Forest, Kate
  • Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos
  • Handy, Susan
  • Hyland, Michael
  • Jenn, Alan
  • Karten, Seth
  • Lane, Blake
  • Mackinnon, Michael
  • Martin, Elliot
  • Miller, Marshall
  • Ramirez-Ibarra, Monica
  • Ritchie, Stephen
  • Schremmer, Sara
  • Segui, Joshua
  • Shaheen, Susan
  • Tok, Andre
  • Voleti, Aditya
  • Witcover, Julie
  • Yang, Allison

Abstract

The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts the COVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios, focusing on “business as usual” (BAU) and Low Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms to utilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis of transportation fuels and their lifecycle. The following sections are an analysis of external costs and benefits: section 10 analyzes the health impacts of decarbonizing transportation, section 11 analyzes equity and environmental justice, and section 12 analyzes workforce and labor impacts. Finally, future research needs are provided in section 13. The study overall finds that cost-effective pathways to carbon-neutral transportation in California exist, but that they will require significant acceleration in a wide variety of policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Austin L. & Sperling, Daniel & Austin, Bernadette & DeShazo, JR & Fulton, Lew & Lipman, Timothy & Murphy, Colin W & Saphores, Jean Daniel & Tal, Gil & Abrams, Carolyn & Chakraborty, Debapriya &, 2021. "Driving California’s Transportation Emissions to Zero," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3np3p2t0, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3np3p2t0
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott, William A., 2024. "Cost, innovation, and emissions leakage from overlapping climate policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Kane, Kevin & Zheng, Huixin, 2025. "COVID-era built environment and travel: Insights from location-based services data," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    3. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2023. "What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix? An interdisciplinary review of evidence and research gaps," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 54-63.
    4. Lane, Blake & Kinnon, Michael Mac & Shaffer, Brendan & Samuelsen, Scott, 2022. "Deployment planning tool for environmentally sensitive heavy-duty vehicles and fueling infrastructure," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    5. Nicholas Pallonetti & Brett D. H. Williams, 2021. "Refining Estimates of Fuel-Cycle Greenhouse-Gas Emission Reductions Associated with California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project with Program Data and Other Case-Specific Inputs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-22, July.
    6. Fulton, Lew & Yang, Chris & Burke, Andrew & Acharya, Tri Dev & Bourne, Beth & Coffee, Daniel & Kong, David, 2024. "Fuel-Cell Vehicle and Hydrogen Transitions in California: Scenarios, Cost Analysis, and Workforce Implications," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt133538gw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Jenn, Alan, 2023. "Emissions of electric vehicles in California’s transition to carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    8. Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward, 2024. "Energy and environmental costs in transitioning to zero and low emission trucks for the Australian truck Fleet: An industry perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).

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