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A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel

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  • Patricia L. Mokhtarian

    (Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California Davis, CA 95616, USA, plmokhtarian@ucdavis.edu)

Abstract

A multiplicative model is proposed as a framework for examining the current knowledge in forecasting the demand for telecommuting and the resulting transport impacts. A running illustrative example (containing a base and a future case) is developed, using plausible values for each factor in the model. The base case suggests that 6.1 per cent of the workforce may be currently telecommuting, with 1.5 per cent doing so on any given day, eliminating at most 1 per cent of total household vehicle-miles travelled. Future reductions could be smaller as commute distances of telecommuters become more average and as the stimulation effect of telecommuting grows. In any event, it is likely that—due to counteracting forces—the aggregate travel impacts will remain relatively flat into the future, even if the amount of telecommuting increases considerably.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia L. Mokhtarian, 1998. "A Synthetic Approach to Estimating the Impacts of Telecommuting on Travel," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(2), pages 215-241, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:urbstu:v:35:y:1998:i:2:p:215-241
    DOI: 10.1080/0042098984952
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan, 1997. "Modeling the desire to telecommute: The importance of attitudinal factors in behavioral models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 35-50, January.
    2. Mannering, Jill S. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1995. "Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt08s817dr, University of California Transportation Center.
    3. Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1991. "Telecommuting and Travel: State of the Practice, State of the Art," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4zc486ph, University of California Transportation Center.
    4. P L Mokhtarian & I Salomon, 1996. "Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting: 2. A Case of the Preferred Impossible Alternative," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 28(10), pages 1859-1876, October.
    5. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Handy, Susan L. & Salomon, Ilan, 1995. "Methodological issues in the estimation of the travel, energy, and air quality impacts of telecommuting," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 283-302, July.
    6. Henderson, Dennis & Mohktarian, Patricia, 1996. "Impacts of Center-Based Telecommuting on Travel and Emissions: Analysis of the Puget Sound Demonstration Project," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3tt6d46w, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Mokhtarian, Patricia L, 1991. "Defining Telecommuting," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt35c4q71r, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1990. "A Typology of Relationships Between Telecommunications And Transportation," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4rx589m0, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Salomon, Ilan & Saxena, Somitra & Sampath, Srikanth & Cheung, Peter & Le, Kate & Bagley, Michael, 1996. "Adoption of Telecommuting in Two California State Agencies," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2v63b7b8, University of California Transportation Center.
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    12. Henderson, Dennis K. & Koenig, Brett E. & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1996. "Using Travel Diary Data to Estimate the Emissions Impacts of Transportation Strategies: The Puget Sound Telecommuting Demonstration Project," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt0g01v83p, University of California Transportation Center.
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    16. P L Mokhtarian & I Salomon, 1994. "Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting: Setting the Context," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 26(5), pages 749-766, May.
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