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Long-Run Impacts of Unions on Firms: New Evidence from Financial Markets, 1961-1999

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  • Lee, David S.
  • Mas, Alexandre

Abstract

We estimate the effect of new unionization on firms’ equity value over the 1961-1999 period using a newly assembled sample of National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) representation elections matched to stock market data. Event-study estimates show an average union effect on the equity value of the firm equivalent to a cost of at least $40,500 per unionized worker. At the same time, point estimates from a regression-discontinuity design – comparing the stock market impact of close union election wins to close losses – are considerably maller and close to zero. We find a negative relationship between the cumulative abnormal returns and the vote share in support of the union, allowing us to reconcile these seemingly contradictory findings. Using the magnitudes from the analysis, we calibrate a structural “median voter” model of endogenous union determination in order to conduct counterfactual policy simulations of policies that would marginally increase the ease of unionization.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, David S. & Mas, Alexandre, 2009. "Long-Run Impacts of Unions on Firms: New Evidence from Financial Markets, 1961-1999," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1j93n8gj, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:indrel:qt1j93n8gj
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    2. MacLeod, W. Bentley, 2011. "Great Expectations: Law, Employment Contracts, and Labor Market Performance," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 18, pages 1591-1696, Elsevier.
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    6. Aaron J. Sojourner, 2013. "Do Unions Promote Members' Electoral Office Holding? Evidence from Correlates of State Legislatures' Occupational Shares," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 66(2), pages 467-486, April.
    7. Isa Camyar & Bahar Ulupinar, 2019. "Electoral systems and the economy: a firm-level analysis," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    8. Aaron J. Sojourner & Brigham R. Frandsen & Robert J. Town & David C. Grabowski & Min M. Chen, 2015. "Impacts of Unionization on Quality and Productivity," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(4), pages 771-806, August.
    9. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Persson, Lars & Tåg, Joacim, 2016. "The Incredible Shrinking Stock Market: On the Political Economy Consequences of Excessive Delistings," Working Paper Series 1115, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 06 Feb 2018.
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