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How Conservative Does the Central Banker Have to Be? On the Treatment of Expectations under Discretionary Policymaking



This paper explores an issue that arises in the delegation process. The paper shows that a myopic central banker, one who treats expectations as constant in setting discretionary policy, can replicate the behavior of output and inflation under policy from a timeless perspective. For that to happen, society must delegate a price level target or a speed limit policy to a central banker who is more weight-conservative than society.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfred V. Guender, 2007. "How Conservative Does the Central Banker Have to Be? On the Treatment of Expectations under Discretionary Policymaking," Working Papers in Economics 07/04, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:07/04

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Timeless perspective vs. discretionary monetary policy in forward-looking models," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 43-56.
    2. Froyen, Richard T. & Guender, Alfred V., 2014. "Price level targeting and the delegation issue in an open economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 12-15.
    3. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
    4. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
    5. Richard T. Froyen & Alfred V. Guender, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12510.
    6. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
    7. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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    More about this item


    New Keynesian Model; Price Level Targeting; Speed Limit Policy; Conservative Central Banker;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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