IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbo/wpaper/58964.html

Modeling the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations in the United States: Working Paper 2023-06

Author

Listed:
  • David Austin

Abstract

This paper presents a simulation model of the markets for light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) and the associated public charging infrastructure, as well as the network interactions between them. It illustrates the model’s attributes by simulating the effects of federal subsidies for public electric vehicle chargers and of an extension of tax credits for electric vehicles. I project that by the early 2030s the charger subsidies, which were signed into law in 2021 as part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, will have increased the size of the charger network enough

Suggested Citation

  • David Austin, 2023. "Modeling the Demand for Electric Vehicles and the Supply of Charging Stations in the United States: Working Paper 2023-06," Working Papers 58964, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:58964
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2023-09/58964-EV.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cassandra Cole & Michael Droste & Christopher Knittel & Shanjun Li & James H. Stock, 2023. "Policies for Electrifying the Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet in the United States," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 316-322, May.
    2. James Archsmith & Erich Muehlegger & David S. Rapson, 2022. "Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles, and Opportunities," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 71-110.
    3. Hunt Allcott & Nathan Wozny, 2014. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(5), pages 779-795, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kear, Sarah & Marangon Lima, Luana M. & Kittner, Noah, 2025. "Charging forward: A greenhouse gas emissions analysis of New York State's electric vehicle and clean energy goals," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    2. Lee, Yong-Jin Alex & Nilsson, Isabelle, 2025. "Estimating the effect of a state-level charging infrastructure funding program on plug-in electric vehicle adoption," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Philippe Aghion & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & David Hémous & Ralf Martin & John Van Reenen, 2016. "Carbon Taxes, Path Dependency, and Directed Technical Change: Evidence from the Auto Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(1), pages 1-51.
    4. Rik Rozendaal & Herman Vollebergh, 2025. "Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(3), pages 565-598.
    5. Sallee, James M. & West, Sarah E. & Fan, Wei, 2016. "Do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy? Evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-73.
    6. Huang, Robert & Kahn, Matthew E., 2024. "An economic analysis of United States public transit carbon emissions dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    7. Jacobsen, Grant D., 2015. "Do energy prices influence investment in energy efficiency? Evidence from energy star appliances," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 94-106.
    8. Matsushima, Hiroshi & Khanna, Madhu, "undated". "Revealing Auto-Manufacturers’ Implicit Pricing Strategy under the Reformed CAFE Standard: A Reduced Form Approach," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274421, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2024. "Heterogeneity in the pass-through from oil to gasoline prices: A new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    10. Xavier D’Haultfœuille & Isis Durrmeyer & Philippe Février, 2019. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium with Unobserved Price Discrimination," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(5), pages 1973-1998.
    11. Stefan Lamp, 2023. "Sunspots That Matter: The Effect of Weather on Solar Technology Adoption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 1179-1219, April.
    12. Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2025. "Fuel prices as a driver of sustainable mobility: Impacts on traffic volume and vehicle choice," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Soren T. Anderson & Ian W. H. Parry & James M. Sallee & Carolyn Fischer, 2011. "Automobile Fuel Economy Standards: Impacts, Efficiency, and Alternatives," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 89-108, Winter.
    14. Daziano, Ricardo A., 2015. "Inference on mode preferences, vehicle purchases, and the energy paradox using a Bayesian structural choice model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-26.
    15. Houde, Sébastien & Myers, Erica, 2021. "Are consumers attentive to local energy costs? Evidence from the appliance market," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    16. repec:ejw:journl:v:14:y:2017:i:1:p:103-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Chugh, Randy & Cropper, Maureen & Narain, Urvashi, 2011. "The cost of fuel economy in the Indian passenger vehicle market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7174-7183.
    18. Patrick Bigler & Doina Maria Radulescu, 2022. "Environmental, Redistributive and Revenue Effects of Policies Promoting Fuel Efficient and Electric Vehicles," CESifo Working Paper Series 9645, CESifo.
    19. P. Givord & C. Grislain-Letrémy & H. Naegele, 2014. "How does fuel taxation impact new car purchases? An evaluation using French consumer-level dataset," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2014-14, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    20. Brucal, Arlan & Roberts, Michael J., 2019. "Do energy efficiency standards hurt consumers? Evidence from household appliance sales," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 88-107.
    21. Sahari, Anna, 2019. "Electricity prices and consumers’ long-term technology choices: Evidence from heating investments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 19-53.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbo:wpaper:58964. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbogvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.