Monetary Policy, Nominal Interest Rates, and Long-horizon Inflation Uncertainty
Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in stabilising the incipient unit root in inflation. The mechanism by which it does this appears, however, to be complicated by strong empirical evidence that nominal interest rates have real effects, which implies that monetary policy need not be so vigorous in reaction to inflation. This helps explain why inflation rates in the US and (especially) Germany have been relatively predictable, despite monetary policy rules which appear to have been barely stabilising. The paper also presents tentative evidence that the power of nominal interest rate effects is inversely related to long-horizon inflation uncertainty, and hence ultimately uncertainty about monetary policy.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998.
"The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 149-194, December.
- Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:9820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.