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Tests of time-invariance

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  • Busettti, F.
  • Harvey, A.

Abstract

Quantiles provide a comprehensive description of the properties of a variable and tracking changes in quantiles over time using signal extraction methods can be informative. It is shown here how stationarity tests can be generalized to test the null hypothesis that a particular quantile is constant over time by using weighted indicators. Corresponding tests based on expectiles are also proposed; these might be expected to be more powerful for distributions that are not heavy-tailed. Tests for changing dispersion and asymmetry may be based on contrasts between particular quantiles or expectiles. We report Monte Carlo experiments investigating the e¤ectiveness of the proposed tests and then move on to consider how to test for relative time invariance, based on residuals from fitting a time-varying level or trend. Empirical examples, using stock returns and U.S. inflation, provide an indication of the practical importance of the tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Busettti, F. & Harvey, A., 2007. "Tests of time-invariance," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0701, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:0701
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2006. "Time-Varying Quantiles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0649, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Andrew Harvey & Jared Bernstein, 2003. "Measurement and Testing of Inequality from Time Series of Deciles with an Application to U.S. Wages," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 141-152, February.
    4. Nyblom, Jukka & Harvey, Andrew, 2000. "Tests Of Common Stochastic Trends," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 176-199, April.
    5. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    6. Andrew Harvey & Siem Jan Koopman, 2000. "Signal extraction and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 84-107.
    7. de Jong, Robert M. & Amsler, Christine & Schmidt, Peter, 2007. "A robust version of the KPSS test based on indicators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 311-333, April.
    8. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1999. "Asymptotics For Nonlinear Transformations Of Integrated Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 269-298, June.
    9. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    10. Harvey, Andrew & Streibel, Mariane, 1998. "Testing for a slowly changing level with special reference to stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 167-189, August.
    11. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    12. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    13. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    14. Harvey, Campbell R. & Siddique, Akhtar, 1999. "Autoregressive Conditional Skewness," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 465-487, December.
    15. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, September.
    16. Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
    17. Jukka Nyblom & Andrew Harvey, 2001. "Testing against smooth stochastic trends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 415-429.
    18. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2005. "Stationarity Tests Under Time-Varying Second Moments," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1112-1129, December.
    19. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2011. "When is a Copula Constant? A Test for Changing Relationships," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 106-131, Winter.
    2. Thanaset Chevapatrakul & Kai-Hong Tee, 2014. "The Effects of News Events on Market Contagion: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis," Discussion Papers 2014/08, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    3. Harvey, A., 2008. "Dynamic distributions and changing copulas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. De Rossi, Giuliano & Harvey, Andrew, 2009. "Quantiles, expectiles and splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 179-185, October.
    5. Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Tee, Kai-Hong, 2014. "The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 83-105.
    6. George Kapetanios, 2007. "Testing for Strict Stationarity," Working Papers 602, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dispersion; expectiles; quantiles; skewness; stationarity tests; stochastic volatility; value at risk.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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